News · Press Release

After Damaging July, Republicans Limp into August

Dems have been putting up record fundraising numbers and strong new candidates while GOP scrambles to keep “wave” of retirements from turning into a “tsunami”

We are officially in August, but House Republicans’ July is going to leave a mark. Let’s take this point by point:

  1. Half a dozen prominent GOP members, including Will Hurd (!), have thrown in the towel over the last two weeks alone — with more expected as early as today. Now House Republicans fear “they are on the brink of a massive wave of retirements that could force them to play defense in a high-stakes presidential election year.”
  2. Freshmen Democrats across the country raked in yet another round of record fundraising in Q2, out-raising Republicans and giving their campaigns the early resources necessary for success.
  3. Top tier Democrats have emerged well-positioned to beat vulnerable Washington Republicans like Ross Spano, Chip Roy, Jaime Herrera Beutler, Vern Buchanan, Scott Perry – and to retake the now open seat of, ironically, NRCC Recruitment Chair Rep. Susan Brooks.
  4. The latest Economist/YouGov survey gives Democrats an 11-point lead on the generic Congressional ballot. For your reference, when Democrats flipped the House in 2018, the average of the generic ballot was +7.3-points.

DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos released the following statement:

While Chairman Emmer and Leader McCarthy desperately beg their colleagues not to retire, Democrats are raising the resources we need to protect and expand this Majority. Frankly, Republicans are running for the exits for the same reason folks at the grassroots have our backs: Democrats are standing up for affordable health care, while Republicans are stuck defending their never ending quest to jack up Americans’ health care costs and undermine protections for pre-existing conditions.

Here’s a look back at what you may have missed over the last month…

AFTER A DELUGE OF HIGH-PROFILE HOUSE GOP RETIRMENTS, MORE EXITS EXPECTED

Texas Tribune: “Nationally, Hurd’s retirement is a massive blow to the morale of Republicans who care about winning back the U.S. House.”

  • “Several state and national Republican operatives reached out to The Texas Tribune to react to the news. Nearly all of the commentary involved highly explicit language.” 

The Hill: House GOP fears retirement wave will lead to tsunami

House Republicans plotting to win back their majority in Congress fear they are on the brink of a massive wave of retirements that could force them to play defense in a high-stakes presidential election year.

Three House Republicans said last week they would not seek another term next year, catching party strategists off guard. Those announcements came earlier than in a typical election cycle, when members who are ready to hang up their voting cards usually wait until after the August recess or after the Christmas break.

… “Serving in the era of Trump has few rewards. He has made an already hostile political environment worse. Every day there is some indefensible tweet or comment to defend or explain. It is exhausting and often embarrassing,” the member of Congress said. Even if Republicans were to win back the majority, “our edge would be narrow which means we would live under the tyranny of the Freedom Caucus. Frankly I wonder if this conference is capable of governing.”

… Democrats will try to make life uncomfortable for those Republicans who won the narrowest races in 2018. Already, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has highlighted 19 Republicans they say are on their retirement watch list — including two, Olson and Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Ga.), who have said they won’t run again.

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District-by-District

STRONG DEM CHALLENGERS ARE POISED TO DEFEAT VULNERABLE REPUBLICANS

IN-05: Indy Star: Former state Rep. Christina Hale enters race to replace Susan Brooks in Congress

Former Democratic state Rep. Christina Hale is officially running to fill Susan Brooks’ 5th Congressional District seat.

…”This is an opportunity that I’ve been interested in because it’s an opportunity to serve,” Hale, 47, told IndyStar on Wednesday. “And I think people are ready for someone who really cares about these practical issues, someone who really cares about Hoosier families, and will be focused on things that make the difference to everyday people, like healthcare, like education opportunity.”

[…]

FL-15: Tampa Bay Times: Democrat and Navy vet Adam Hattersley challenging Republican Ross Spano for east Hillsborough House seat

Last year, Democrat Adam Hattersley won the state House seat vacated by Ross Spano when the Republican made the jump to Congress. Now Hattersley wants to take down Spano.

…Hattersley said he was compelled to run for the U.S. House in part because of scandals and potential investigations that have hovered over Spano since before he took office.

[…]

FL-16: Tampa Bay Times: Margaret Good, Democrat who won Florida House seat in Trump territory, now running for Congress

Less than two years after Democrat Margaret Good defeated Republican James Buchanan in a closely watched Florida House race, she has now set her sights on unseating his father.

Good announced Monday she’s running for Congress and will challenge seven-term incumbent Rep. Vern Buchanan for his Sarasota-based district.

“I’m not afraid of a tough fight when it’s about doing what is right in this community,” Good said in an interview with the Tampa Bay Times shortly after jumping in the race. “Because when you’re motivated to do the work and be the best representative you can, that resonates with people. ”

[…]

PA-10: York Dispatch: ANALYSIS: With eye on Pa.’s 10th District, Democrat DePasquale charts center course

Seeking to unseat a four-term GOP congressman in traditionally red territory, state Auditor General Eugene DePasquale is distancing himself from some of the more progressive policies being embraced by others in his Democratic Party.

[…]

TX-21: Houston Chronicle: Wendy Davis raises $250,000 in first day of congressional campaign

Former Texas Sen. Wendy Davis raked in more than $250,000 in the first 24 hours after she announced her bid for U.S. Rep. Chip Roy’s 21st District seat on Monday, her campaign announced Tuesday.

…“This just shows the level of grassroots excitement there is behind Wendy’s campaign,” said Malcolm Phelan, Davis’ campaign manager. “People want to know they have someone in their corner who is focused on them and their families. From making sure they have access to good paying jobs and healthcare, to providing their children safe schools and the opportunity to thrive, Wendy has a history of showing she won’t shy away from tough fights for the people she represents.”

[…]

WA-03: OPB: Democrat Carolyn Long Seeks Rematch Against Washington Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler

Democrat Carolyn Long announced Monday she’s waging a second challenge against Republican incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler for southwest Washington’s 3rd Congressional District.

Long, a political science professor at Washington State University in Vancouver, drew 47% of the vote last November. The race was one of the most competitive Herrera Beutler has faced since she was first elected in 2010.

[…]

MEANWHILE, FRESHMEN DEMS ARE WINNING IN THE OFF-YEAR WITH RECORD FUNDRAISING

National Journal: Freshmen Dems Fortify House Advantage With Massive Q2s

Swing-seat freshman Democrats raised a collective $24 million in the second quarter of 2019, a staggering sum that will provide an early fortification for key House battlegrounds and complicate Republicans’ attempts to reclaim the majority.

It’s the latest sign that the cash influx that boosted dozens of Democratic candidates to victory last November isn’t dissipating, even with the next election still more than a year away and with some two dozen presidential candidates competing for donations.

In total, 33 freshman Democrats raised at least $500,000 from April to June, more than twice the number who crossed that threshold in the first quarter, according to National Journal analysis of Federal Election Commission filings. And 23 of them began July with $900,000 or more in the bank.

[…]

For comparison, just five of the 30 Republican incumbents who lost to Democrats last cycle raised more than half a million in the second quarter of 2017.

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District-by-District

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