DCCC has outraised the NRCC six months in a row as Republican retirements stack up
In October, the DCCC outraised the NRCC $7.7M to $4.5M respectively for a huge difference of $3.2M in just the span of one month. This is the sixth month in a row that Democrats have outraised Republicans, indicating a huge gap in the enthusiasm that is only growing stronger. In all of 2017 to date, the DCCC has raised $89M to the NRCC’s $77M, despite Republicans having full control of Washington. This is an ominous trend that should cause serious concern for Speaker Ryan and the NRCC.
That’s not the only good news for Democrats today as The Cook Political Report has moved six key races, “reflecting enhanced opportunities for Democrats”…
- FL-26 (Carlos Curbelo)
- Lean Republican → Toss Up
- IL-06 (Peter Roskam)
- Lean Republican → Toss Up
- NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
- Lean Republican → Toss Up
- TX-07 (John Culberson)
- Lean Republican → Toss Up
- UT-04 (Mia Love)
- Likely Republican → Lean Republican
- WI-06 (Glenn Grothman)
- Solid Republican → Likely Republican
As Dave Wasserman writes…
If it wasn’t already clear, last Tuesday’s election results confirmed a political atmosphere that would seriously endanger the House GOP’s majority in 2018. In Virginia, turnout was up 20 percent over 2013 in localities won by Hillary Clinton, compared to 13 percent in localities carried by President Trump. Not only did Democrat Ralph Northam outperform pre-election polls, Democrats shocked by nearly winning control of Virginia’s House of Delegates.
In blue-leaning delegate seats, GOP incumbents’ personal appeal failed to insulate them from voters’ anti-Trump mood, even against weak, under-funded and self-described socialist opponents. Republicans held onto just two of their 17 seats in districts Clinton carried, and are headed to a recount in a third. The results suggest Northern Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock (VA-10) is the single most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country.
[…] Taken together with results from four 2017 House special elections in red districts, where Democrats outperformed Clinton anywhere from one point (GA-06) to 13 points (KS-04), the balance of evidence suggests Democrats would be the ever-so-slight favorites to reclaim the House if the elections were held today. New congressional generic ballot polls showing Democrats with double-digit leads only bolster that assessment.
[…] Moreover, tough votes like yesterday’s on tax reform continue to give Democrats new avenues to link GOP members to unpopular proposals and leaders. Democrats are increasingly confident Speaker Paul Ryan will turn into a more effective bogeyman than either Trump or Nancy Pelosi, because he’s disliked not only by Democrats but by much of Trump’s base — a constituency GOP members badly need to motivate and turn out to win their races.
[…]