Please see below for an update on the Special Election in California’s 25th Congressional District.
DCCC Memorandum
To: Interested Parties
From: Andy Orellana, DCCC Western Press Secretary
Date: Friday, November 15, 2019
Subject: California’s 25th District Special Election
With California Governor Gavin Newsom’s announcement of a special election in California’s 25th Congressional District, it’s official that Democrats are in an extremely strong position to hold this seat. The Republican party grows increasingly toxic in California, the 25th Congressional District is rapidly trending in Democrats’ favor, and the electorate for this special election – during a year that Donald Trump is on the ballot – will prove advantageous for Democrats. Please see below for an update on the Special Election in California’s 25th Congressional District.
Trump And The Republican Brand Are Toxic In California
California’s 25th Congressional District is a dense, majority-suburban seat situated in northern Los Angeles County and eastern Ventura County. Democrats hold a 6 point registration advantage in the district. Hillary Clinton’s 7 point win in 2016 and the changing demographics of this seat already make Republicans’ chances of retaking this seat an uphill climb. The current Partisan Voting Index (PVI) in CA-25 is Even.
Beyond the fundamentals, President Trump’s tumultuous presidency was a major liability in CA-25 for the then Republican incumbent Steve Knight, and many other Republicans in California in 2018. Knight is the last Republican to represent LA County, and another showdown against Democrats in CA-25 in a presidential year only lowers his chances of returning to Congress.
Since 1998, Republicans have not gained a single seat in the U.S House of Representatives from the State of California, and there is no evidence that trend will shift with Trump looming above Steve Knight in 2020.
Republicans Will Limp out of THE March 3rd Primary on Super Tuesday
With the primary for this special election now on Super Tuesday, the Republican nominee will emerge without any momentum or signs of life.
The Democratic presidential primary will mean massive energy, attention, and turnout amongst Democrats. And, while Democrats, Republicans and non-partisan independents will be able to vote in the Democratic presidential primary, the California GOP has announced that the CA GOP Primary will be closed to exclusively registered Republicans.
Furthermore, for the presidential primary California allocates delegates by Congressional District and all the presidential campaigns will be competing to get delegates specifically from CA-25. These factors, in addition to a growing and engaged electorate and in-the-district trends, should be favorable for Democrats in CA-25 come 2020.
California 25th is Trending Blue & So Are Special Elections Since Trump Became President
California’s 25th is an increasingly blue district. Clinton carried CA-25 by more than 7 points in 2016. Currently, Republicans don’t hold a single district in the country where Clinton topped 50 percent or any district that she won by as large of a margin. Democrats built on that margin in 2018, carrying CA-25 by nearly 9-points.
In 2012, 39% of the voters in CA-25 were Republican – now it is just 32%. At the same time, the portion of Democrats in CA-25 rose from 35% to 38% and those unaffiliated with any party — a group that has strongly sided against Republicans in the Trump era — jumped from 19% to 25%. The voting age population is 30% Latino, and the district is more than 46% Hispanic, AAPI, or African American, and has consistently trended toward Democrats in the last decade.
In addition, there have been consistent swings towards Democrats in special elections since Donald Trump became president. These swings have occurred in districts like Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, and North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District, which are traditionally far less competitive for Democrats than CA-25.
The trends of this districts, the anticipated electorate, and the realities of special elections since 2017 make clear that Democrats are in a commanding position to win in May.
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