TO: Interested Parties
FROM: DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department
BRENDAN KELLY IN DEAD HEAT WITH CONGRESSMAN MIKE BOST
Democrat Brendan Kelly is within one point of two-term Congressman Mike Bost, according to the latest DCCC Analytics poll of IL-12 voters (Kelly 41%, Bost 42%, Auxier 8%, 8% undecided). Even in a two-way matchup between Kelly and Bost, Kelly is within 2 points of Bost, with Kelly at 44% and Bost at 46% (10% undecided). He leads Bost by 5 points in the St. Louis media market (Kelly 44%, Bost 39%, Auxier 8%, 9% undecided), which makes up two-thirds of the district. He also leads among women (42% to 39%, Auxier 8%), voters under 50 (49% to 37%, Auxier 5%), and college graduates (45% to 42%, Auxier 7%).
BOST’S DAMAGED IMAGE MAKES HIM VULNERABLE
Voters’ middling to negative views of Mike Bost and his performance suggest that he is highly vulnerable. Mike Bost is underwater in the St. Louis media market, despite Bost’s campaign and the Congressional Leadership Fund spending heavily on broadcast and cable here. In the St. Louis market, 37% of voters have an unfavorable view of Bost (35% favorable), 39% disapprove of how he is handling his job as congressman (34% approve), and he trails Kelly by 5 points (Kelly 44%, Bost 39%, Auxier 8%). These numbers indicate that Brendan Kelly’s aggressive advertising, which hits Bost for being a career politician who has voted to give a tax handout to his donors and to gut health care protections, has damaged Bost’s image.
The story is similar in the Paducah media market, which should be Bost’s base, where Kelly’s strategy of investing early on broadcast in this area likely helped contribute to Bost’s 32% unfavorable rating and 34% job disapproval.
About the district: IL-12 is one of 18 congressional districts in Illinois. IL-12 is mostly rural (59.1%), 39.3% suburban. 15.9% of CVAP are African American, and 22.9% are between the ages of 18-35. Clinton (42.2% two-way) lost the district while Obama (50.8% two-way) won the district.
These results are based on a survey of 574 likely 2018 general election voters in IL-12 conducted by the DCCC fielded September 26-27, 2018. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and this poll was conducted through a standard blend of live and automated calls. The margin of error is +/- 4.2%.
For Immediate Release: October 2, 2018
CONTACT: Jacob Peters | 614-558-3781
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