To: Interested Parties
From: DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department
Re: Polling in Washington’s 3rd District
Date: October 22, 2020
LONG TIED IN COMPETITIVE WA-03 RACE
Democrat Carolyn Long is in a statistical tie with Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler with the Congresswoman up by just 2 points (47% to 49% with 4% undecided) in a DCCC Analytics poll of 425 likely general election voters conducted in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District from October 19th – 20th. Since the August primary, this is the second poll showing this race within a 2-point margin and the third time where Herrera Beutler has been unable to clear 50% illustrating how vulnerable the incumbent is in this shifting suburban district.
HIGHLY COMPETITIVE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT MOVING AGAINST TRUMP AND REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump faces significant and growing opposition in this district with half of voters disapproving of his job performance (50% disapprove, 44% approve), making the national Republican brand distinctly unpopular. Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 2 points (45% to 43% with 12% undecided) which represents a 9-point swing from when Trump won the district by 7 points in 2016.
LONG IS WINNING AMONG WOMEN AND INDEPENDENTS WITH ROOM TO GROW
Women voters across the country are running away from Trump and Washington Republicans and WA-03 is no different. Trump owns a -16 point net job approval rating among women (40% Approve, 56% disapprove) and Long is winning women by +9 points over Herrera Beutler (52% to 43%). Long is winning both modeled Independents and self-identified Independents and is poised to win this swingy Trump district.
Methodology: These results are based on a survey of 425 WA-03 likely November 2020 general election voters, conducted by DCCC Analytics Department from October 19-20, 2020, using a combination of live and automated calls. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%, with a larger margin of error for demographic subgroups.