TO: Interested Parties
FROM: DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department
DATE: October 12, 2020
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THE RACE FOR FL-15 IS COMPETITIVE
Democrat Alan Cohn is statistically tied with Republican Scott Franklin, down by 3 points (39% to 42%, with 19% undecided) in a DCCC Analytics survey of 390 likely November voters conducted in Florida’s 15th Congressional District.
ALAN COHN IS PREFERRED BY YOUNG VOTERS AND VOTERS OF COLOR, IS COMPETITIVE AMONG SENIORS AND INDEPENDENTS
Cohn already holds a commanding lead over Franklin among voters of color (52% to 22%, with 26% undecided) and is positioned well with voters under 30 years of age (49% to 27%, with 24% undecided), and is winning among voters familiar with both congressional candidates (56% to 46%). This lead will continue to grow as voters in the district learn more about Cohn’s career as an independent journalist who understands the lives of hard-working Floridians and has held corrupt politicians accountable, regardless of their party. Crucially, Cohn is within striking distance of Franklin among registered NPA voters (30% to 40%, with 30% undecided) and seniors (37% to 47%, with 15% undecided), a margin that will decrease even more as voters learn how Scott Franklin will cut their Social Security and Medicare to continue giving away tax breaks to big corporations and millionaires like himself.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEMOCRATS
In this poll, Joe Biden is statistically tied with Donald Trump, trailing him by just 1 point (45% to 46%) and a generic Democrat is within the margin of error of a Republican candidate (44% to 49%). For comparison, Hillary Clinton lost this district by a 10-point margin (42.7% to 52.7%) and in 2018 Kristen Carlson narrowly lost this district to Ross Spano (47% to 53%).
This survey of 390 likely November 2020 voters was conducted from September 30th-Oct 4th by the DCCC Analytics department. This poll was conducted through a standard blend of live and automated calls to landlines and cellphones. The margin of error for any one data point of the total sample is +/-5.0 points, and larger for sub-groups within the sample.
About the District: FL-15 stretches from the eastern Tampa suburbs to the far west Orlando exurbs. It contains portions of Hillsborough (50.0% of registered voters, Polk (34.8% of registered voters), and Lake Counties (15.2% of registered voters). By registered voter population, the district is mostly suburban (82.2% suburban, 10.3% urban, and 7.5% rural). By citizen voting-age population, the district is 18.5% Hispanic/Latino, 14.6% Black, 2.7% AAPI, and 0.3% Native American. 25.2% of residents age 25 and over hold college degrees, below both the state and national averages.
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