To: Interested Parties
From: DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department
Date: October 26, 2020
ONE WEEK OUT FROM ELECTION DAY, DIANE MITSCH BUSH LEADS LAUREN BOEBERT BY ONE POINT IN C0-03
In a DCCC Analytics poll of 491 likely general election voters from Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District conducted last week, Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush leads Republican Lauren Boebert by 1 point in the full ballot, 44% to 43%, with 5% going to Libertarian John Keil, 2% going to Unity Party Chris “Critter” Milton, and 6% undecided. Significantly, Mitsch Bush leads Boebert by 17-points (49% to 32%) among the largest group in the district by party registration, Independent/UAF voters.
In a sign of just how competitive this race is a week out from Election Day, Republican outside groups are pouring money into the district to prop up their struggling candidate. This week alone, the Congressional Leadership Fund and the NRCC are spending nearly $700,000.
PRESIDENT TRUMP IS STRUGGLING AFTER WINNING THIS DISTRICT IN 2016
After winning Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District by nearly 12 points in 2016, President Trump is locked in a dead heat with former Vice President Joe Biden. Trump leads Biden by just one point: 46% to 45% with 8% undecided. This is consistent with previous polling conducted by the Mitsch Bush campaign, which showed each presidential candidate with 47% of the vote in mid-September.
These results are based on a poll of 491 likely general election voters in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, conducted by DCCC Analytics from October 19-20, 2020 using live callers to cell phones and IVR to landlines. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval, with a larger margin of error for demographic subgroups.