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To: Interested Parties
From: DCCC Analytics Department
Date: September 29th, 2026
Subject: DCCC Polling Memo: OH-09 is a Dead Heat
An internal DCCC Analytics poll conducted September 22nd to 23rd among 481 likely general election voters in OH-09 shows a tied race, with Democrat Marcy Kaptur and Republican Derek Merrin both receiving 48% of the vote, with 4% of voters undecided.
Kaptur and Merrin are tied in the head-to-head. Kaptur is once again proving just how much of an electoral overperformer she is, especially as recent reporting points to a shifting political climate in Ohio. Meanwhile, President Trump’s job approval is significantly underwater, with only 35% approving of the job he is doing compared to 54% who disapprove, in a district he won by 11 points in 2024.
Kaptur is running ahead of both Democratic statewide candidates, has consolidated support with 95% of Democrats, and is leading with independents across the district.
The Bottom Line: Kaptur is running a highly competitive toss-up campaign, despite Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting. This comes as no surprise given Kaptur’s strong history of electoral overperformance and her proven ability to assemble a coalition of voters driven by her commitment to lowering costs, defending Northwest Ohio values, and a record of standing up for working families. In a cycle where GOP support is diminishing due to Republicans’ affordability crisis hiking the cost of everything from groceries and gas to health care and utility bills, Kaptur remains exceptionally well-positioned to retain her seat in Congress.
Methodology: These results are based on a survey of 481 likely general election voters in OH-09 conducted from September 22-23, 2026, via phone and text-to-web interviews. The margin of error is +/- 4.5% at a 95% confidence interval.
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