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To: Interested Parties
From: DCCC Analytics Department
Date: September 21st, 2026
Subject: DCCC Polling Memo: VA-01 is a Dead Heat
An internal DCCC poll conducted September 15-17 among 519 likely general election voters in VA-01 shows the race is statistically tied and presents a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats in 2026. Henrico County’s Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor is running neck and neck with longtime Republican incumbent Rob Wittman, 46% to 47%, with 7% of respondents undecided.
After spending nearly 20 years in Washington, Wittman is stuck under 50% in the head-to-head – a flashing warning sign that voters in this rapidly Democratic-trending district are ready for change. The district already showed it is primed to vote for the right kind of Democratic candidate when Governor Spanberger carried it by 2 points during her November 2025 victory.
Another warning sign for Wittman: President Trump’s support has cratered in the district, despite winning here by nearly 5 points in 2024. Just 37% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing, compared to 55% of voters who disapprove. Respondents in this sample voted for Trump by a 2-point margin, and party identification is R+7.
The Bottom Line: As Shannon continues to introduce herself to voters across the district and Virginians learn more about Wittman’s record of corruption in Washington, this race is emerging as a true toss up. Analysis from UVA’s Center for Politics shows that VA-01 is “the median House district” in 2026, and this poll confirms that the seat is at the dead center of the House battlefield heading into November.
Methodology: These results are based on a survey of 519 likely general election voters in VA-01 conducted from September 15-17, 2026, via phone and text-to-web interviews. The margin of error is +/- 4.3% at a 95% confidence interval.
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