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To: Interested Parties
From: DCCC Analytics Department
Date: October 27th, 2026
Subject: DCCC Polling Memo: VA-01 is a Pure Toss-Up in Final Stretch
An internal DCCC Analytics poll conducted October 24-25, 2026 among 478 likely voters in VA-01 finds Shannon Taylor leading longtime incumbent Rob Wittman by 1 point, 48% to 47%, with only 5% of voters undecided. The race is a pure toss-up entering the final stretch.
Trump remains underwater in the district at net -14 favorability rating (41% favorable/55% unfavorable) and holds a similar -18 job approval (37% approve/55% disapprove), despite winning this district by 5 points in 2024.
The environment is increasingly favorable to Democrats, and early vote totals show the party running ahead of 2025 levels, when Governor Spanberger won VA-01 by 2 points. Democrats are highly motivated to vote: in this poll, 88% of Democrats rate their motivation to vote as a 10/10, compared to just 79% of Republicans who say the same. The district favors a generic Democrat by 3 points, 49% to 46%.
Another factor that is likely to play in Taylor’s favor: Senator Warner is up +11 points, 52% to 41%. A rising tide lifts all boats.
Methodology: These results are based on a survey of 478 likely general election voters in VA-01 conducted from October 24-25, 2026, via phone and text-to-web interviews. The margin of error is +/- 4.5% at a 95% confidence interval.
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