Weekly House Cleaning
A DCCC News Roundup
Donald Trump had quite the painful week, reaching an all-time low in his war on women, and there’s no group more concerned by it than House Republicans. Alex Burns summed up the events in the New York Times:
Donald J. Trump, who in recent days has mocked a political opponent’s wife, defended a campaign aide arrested on a charge of assault and suggested punishing women who terminate pregnancies, may have surrendered any remaining chance to rally Republicans strongly around him before the party’s July convention in Cleveland.
At a moment when a more traditional front-runner might have sought to smooth over divisions within his party and turn his attention to the general election, Mr. Trump has only intensified his slash-and-burn, no-apologies approach to the campaign.
Needless to say, Donald Trump’s ugly, unpredictable and explosive actions don’t exist in isolation: the entire Republican brand suffers each time that he opens his mouth.
In particular, Donald Trump’s belief that women should be punished for undergoing abortions is truly mind-boggling, and provides the latest example of the reelection trouble that Trump will continue to cause for Republicans down-ballot. The DCCC launched digital ads, targeting women and millennials, in IL-10, MI-07, MI-08, MN-03 and NH-10 today to hold Republican incumbents accountable for their party’s frontrunner.
The impact that Donald Trump is having on House Republicans’ reelection prospects is undeniable:
ICYMI: Trump’s divisiveness could help Democrats pick up House seats, analysts say
USA Today
by Erin Kelly
March 31, 2016
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump’s alienation of women, minorities, well-educated suburbanites and millennials could help Democrats pick up a larger-than-expected number of House seats this year, but they are still unlikely to seize the majority from Republicans, analysts predict.
To gain control of the House, Democrats would have to win 30 of the 31 Republican-held House seats that are considered at-risk without losing a single seat of their own, said David Wasserman, who analyzes House races for the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
“It’s a long shot, but it’s not impossible,” said Wasserman, who predicts that Democrats are likely to gain up to 15 seats but adds that the election remains volatile and his estimate could change.
[…]
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — the Democrats’ House campaign operation — is not asserting at this point that Democrats will take over the House. But the party clearly believes the divisiveness of Trump’s campaign has opened up new opportunities for its candidates, especially in suburban districts with well-educated voters and in districts where the percentage of Latino voters is in double digits. National polls have shown that about 80% of Latino voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, as do about 70% of Republicans with college degrees.
Among the districts where Democrats believe they may be able to take advantage of those demographics: Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, which is represented by Republican Barbara Comstock and is made up of high-income, highly educated suburban residents and has a growing Hispanic and Asian population; and Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, an open seat that includes affluent suburbs north of Philadelphia.
“The political environment is as unpredictable as Trump’s explosive rhetoric, but one thing is for sure: House Democratic candidates are ready to seize on the electoral winds at their back, and win big in November,” said Meredith Kelly, national press secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
[…]
But some GOP candidates in close elections have decided to denounce Trump. Republican Reps. Carlos Curbelo, R-Fla., and Bob Dold, R-Ill., both running in Democratic-leaning districts, have said they will never support Trump. Curbelo has called Trump “insulting and offensive” and Dold has denounced him for “disgusting and offensive” comments about women, Muslims, and Hispanics.
Only seven of the 246 Republicans in the House have endorsed Trump.
Part of the problem for GOP congressional candidates is that Americans are increasingly voting party-line, making it unlikely that they would vote for Clinton for president and a Republican for Congress at the same time, said Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College in California.
“That puts the Republican majority in jeopardy, especially in suburban districts, where Trump is about as popular as head lice,” Pitney said. “Trump is definitely going to cause damage for Republicans. It may not be quite enough to cost them control of the House, but he is going to make the party bleed. The only question is how much.”
Last night on OutFront with Erin Burnett, Manu Raju and Deirdre Walsh outlined the positive impact that Donald Trump is having on competitive House districts across the country.
Watch the package here.
EN LAS NOTICIAS
California is a step closer to making history by increasing the minimum wage, y por supuesto, los más beneficiados son los trabajadores latinos. Despite this monumental step in the right direction by California, an increase to the minimum wage across the nation is much needed. No podemos olvidarnos de los Congresistas Republicanos que se oponen aumentar el salario mínimo: Steve Knight (CA-25), David Valadao (CA-21), y Jeff Denham (CA- 10).
Puerto Rico está en una crisis económica, y los Congresistas republicanos can’t get their act together. Taking their sweet time and proposing an undemocratic plan, los republicanos están abandonando las familias de la Isla. And to top it off, Republicans with large Puerto Rican families, like John Mica (FL-07), have failed to push their own party to do what’s right for their constituents.
THE DIRT FROM THE DISTRICTS
AZ-01: Embattled Sheriff Babeu continues to make a run at the record for the most terrible coverage and on the widest variety of scandals. The latest salvo comes in the form of the FBI looking into Babeu’s potential misuse of RICO funds. As The Cook Political Report noted this week, the GOP frontrunner has “mountains of well-publicized personal baggage.”
AZ-02: The disastrous Republican primary could put McSally’s reelection chances in peril – a situation that McSally has made all the worse by refusing to denounce Trump or his disturbing attacks on women and every other group of people imaginable.
CO-06: As The Cook Political Report noted this week, “Carroll has well-honed political skills and unlike several past Democratic recruits, she has a base in Aurora. Moreover, Coffman has yet to face a top-tier opponent in a high-turnout presidential year.” Per usual, Coffman continues to hide from the public eye recess after recess – a strategy that might be “safe” but won’t help him differentiate from the top-of-ticket disaster. To make things even more awkward, Trump is coming to Colorado for multiple visits next week.
FL-10: Val Demings was endorsed during a press conference by the CEO NCPSS (National Committee to Preserve Social Security)
FL-7: Following more details on John Mica’s dubious campaign spending and being taken to task for remaining silent as Donald Trump insulted women, The Cook Political Report moved FL-7 into a category more favorable to Democrats.
IA-01: Recession Rod fallout continues, this time in the form of a scathing Quad-City Times Editorial: “On Twitter, Rod Blum shamed Iowa.” The Cook Political Report was bullish on Vernon this week: “The favorite in the June Democratic primary – and probably November as well – is former Cedar Rapids Councilwoman Monica Vernon.”
IA-03: Young was taken to task for being the only member of the Iowa delegation to vote to derail the Highway Bill.
IL-10: Republican Bob Dold’s political contortionism and “tightrope walking” was revealed this week in Roll Call. He then threw a temper tantrum at CNN when they asked him again how he would deal with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. We get it, it must be annoying to have to continually defend yourself against a Republican frontrunner who says women who get abortions should be “punished” and who wants to deport American Muslims. Maybe then don’t introduce amendments to defund Planned Parenthood, or attend conferences sponsored by known hate groups?
IN-02: Jackie Walorski tried and failed to put distance between herself and the Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump yesterday, when candidate Lynn Coleman called for her to denounce Trump’s anti-constitutional comments that women who get abortions should be “punished.” Jackie herself introduced a bill that would make abortions felonies. So… nice try.
ME-02: Bruce Poliquin’s Property Tax Problems Back in News: Bruce Poliquin’s past abuse of a tax loophole to pay almost nothing on a multi-million dollar waterfront property is so bad that Governor LePage is trying to close it.
More ME-02: In their latest issue, the Cook Political Report highlighted Poliquin’s embarrassing attempts to avoid any and all questions about who he thinks should be his Party’s next standard-bearer. From the report, “Now, Cain is in for an epic rematch and Poliquin won’t say which GOP presidential candidate he caucused for.” SAD!
MI-07: Donald Trump’s outrageous remarks that women who get abortions should be “punished” only pulled back the curtain on what Tim Walberg has been doing for years: trying to take away a woman’s right to make her own health care decisions. EMILY’s List outlines the “Trump-Walberg agenda” here.
MN-02: Last night’s debate proved what a dumpster fire the Republican MN02 primary truly is. Peppered with conspiracy theories, calls to privatize the VA, unanimous Trump support pledges, and a strange poetic reading on anteaters and dragons, it ended with a straw poll that put the NRCC’s hand-picked candidate dead last. Sadly for the Republican establishment, this is no April Fool’s joke.
MT-AL: Zinke was called out for exploiting the death of a US soldier and raising money off bizarre ISIS Hunting Permits.
NE02: The Cook Political Report is bullish on Ashford’s standing, emphasizing his “strong ties to Omaha’s business community” and the Republicans’ failure to “field a strong opponent.” Politico also reported this week on Ashford’s strong reelection prospects:
“But it may not matter in a race against Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford, said several Nebraska Republicans. ‘Everyone likes Brad, so it’s an uphill battle, and Bacon hasn’t done what he needs to do to win,’ said one Nebraska GOP operative with experience on the Hill. ‘It’s not going to happen this cycle.’”
NH-01: Frank Guinta Jumps on Team Trump: In an interview with NHPR, Congressman Frank Guinta said that Donald Trump is a “good thing for the country.” At the same time, Trump advocated for an abortion ban and “some form of punishment” for women who undergo the procedure if outlawed.
NJ-05: Star-Ledger Editorial – Scott Garrett “not only a shameless bigot, but also an unskilled liar”: The editorial board for New Jersey’s largest newspaper, the Star-Ledger, didn’t mince words on Garrett’s pattern of lame attempts to re-write history, the latest over his anti-LGBT views. It’s brutal. It’s a must read.
NY-22: Silence No More: Tea Party champion Claudia Tenney said she will support the eventual Republican nominee – even if it’s Donald Trump. Shorter: Tenney will support the guy who just advocated for an abortion ban and “some form of punishment” for women who undergo the procedure if outlawed.
TX-23: Will Hurd’s record on standing up for Southwest Texans is dismal, but during an recent interview, the Congressman said voters will give him a “passing grade” by reelecting him to Congress in the fall. Taking on the challenge, the DCCC graded Hurd’s record, and as the report card explains, Congressman Hurd has failed Southwest Texans on many occasions.
VA-10: Months after Donald Trump’s offensive comments on women, Latinos, and Muslims, Barbara Comstock finally donated the money Donald Trump gave to her campaign in 2014. The timing comes only after The Cook Political Report, an elections ratings website, moved VA-10 to a category more favorable to Democrats and the subsequent series of stories.
- Meanwhile Comstock is already planning a run for the SENATE. Though it took her 20 months to give away Trump’s campaign donations, Comstock is already planning her next political job.