| In special election after special election, Democrats are overperforming by a whopping 15.5 percentage points compared to 2024 presidential numbers, according to a new report from The New York Times and data compiled by The Downballot.
Put into historical perspective, that 15.5 percent overperformance is more than double compared to Donald Trump’s first midterm election in 2017-2018 when Democrats flipped 41 seats in the House.
Republicans see the writing on the wall. Trump’s sweeping tariffs are wildly unpopular and their Big, Ugly Law is desperately failing. It’s gotten so bad that Trump announced last week he was working to re-brand their signature legislation because the American people are so opposed to giving massive tax breaks to billionaires.
The Republican plan to save their majority? Rigging the election by gerrymandering red states like Texas and Missouri to steal Democratic seats.
But even that strategy is “not sufficient to safeguard their majority given the political environment,” nonpartisan election analyst Dave Wasserman told The New York Times. Wasserman added: “No party would be pursuing this if they felt great about their chances of holding their majority.”
DCCC Spokesperson Justin Chermol:
“House Republicans know they are losing, which is why they are no longer campaigning on their historically unpopular Big, Ugly Law, and instead have decided to rig the midterm elections. We will continue to keep the pressure on these phony moderates for continually rubber stamping Donald Trump’s reckless agenda until we take back the House next year.” |
