Donald Trump & His Undeniable Down-Ballot Impact
“Donald Trump dominated in Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii last night. Now that he is the inevitable Republican nominee, all eyes turn towards Speaker Ryan, Chairman Walden and vulnerable House Republicans to see how they attempt to dodge, duck, dip, dive and dodge The Donald.
“One thing is for sure, the negative impact of Donald Trump on House Republicans and others down-ballot is undeniable,” said Meredith Kelly of the DCCC.
The Hill: “Could Trump nomination put House up for grabs?” [The Hill, 3/8/16]
GOP Policy Chairman Rep. Luke Messer Affirmed Top Of Ticket Would Impact Down-Ballot Races. “Messer doubts his party will lose the House but said the top of the ticket always impacts the race.” [The Hill, 3/8/16]
Chicago Tribune: “Illinois Republicans worry about Trump effect down the ballot.” [Chicago Tribune, 3/7/16]
Former Illinois GOP Chair: “Trump At The Top Of The Ticket Hurts The Brand . . . It’s Not Good For Anybody.” “Illinois Republican leaders already opposing Donald Trump’s presidential campaign are expressing cautious concerns over how his nomination could affect GOP chances in the fall, ranging from Sen. Mark Kirk’s re-election bid to Gov. Bruce Rauner’s attempt to pick up Democratic legislative seats. ‘I think Trump at the top of the ticket hurts the brand,’ said former state GOP chairman Pat Brady, who is backing Ohio Gov. John Kasich. ‘Is it good? No. It’s not good for anybody.’” [Chicago Tribune, 3/7/16]
The Hill: “GOP could lose Congress with Trump: strategist.” [The Hill, 3/3/16]
Republican Strategist: Republicans Could “Absolutely” Lose Both House & Senate If Trump Is Nominee. “Republicans could lose both the House and Senate if Donald Trump is the party’s presidential nominee, according to one GOP strategist. ‘Absolutely, absolutely,’ Republican strategist Ted Newton said when asked if the Republican majorities could be at risk this fall. ‘I wouldn’t want my future as Speaker to be hinging on someone who is unhinged,’ Netwon said of Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.).” [The Hill, 3/3/16]
Politico: “House Dems see leverage on security with Trump ahead.” [Politico, 3/1/16]
DCCC Polling Data Showed Majority Of Likely Voters Expressed Doubts About House Candidates Tied To National Security Views Of Trump Or Cruz. “The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will unveil internal polling Tuesday morning, showing that nearly 60 percent of likely voters in key congressional districts have ‘fairly major’ or ‘very major’ doubts about GOP House candidates connected to the national security views of Republican front-runner Donald Trump or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. The polling data, shared by sources familiar with a strategy meeting where they were unveiled, were the result of asking voters in 55 districts about a generic Republican House candidate who ‘stands with national figures like Donald Trump and Ted Cruz who are willing to ignore Constitutional freedoms in the name of tough talk.’” [Politico, 3/1/16]
Racine Journal Times: “Vos: Trump could hurt down-ballot Republicans.” [Racine Journal Times, 2/29/16]
Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos: Trump As Nominee Would Hurt Down-Ballot Republicans. “Count Assembly Speaker Robin Vos among those who fear a Donald Trump presidential nomination hurting Republicans in other races this fall. . . . ‘I know quite a few conservatives who have said, ‘I’m not going to vote for somebody who isn’t a conservative.’ Because on certain things, I’m not sure he is,’ Vos, R-Rochester, said of Trump. ‘If a big chunk of folks decide to stay home but they’re disproportionately Republican, all the way down the ticket — from state Legislature to county treasurer to U.S. Senate — we could have less people voting for us.’” [Racine Journal Times, 2/29/16]
Cook Political Report: “GOP Lawmakers Worry That Their Nominee Could Drag Them Down.” [Cook Political Report, 1/26/16]
“Many Capitol Hill Republicans Are Genuinely Frightened” By Down-Ballot Impact Of Trump Or Cruz Nomination. “In private conversations with roughly a dozen GOP members of the House over the past two weeks, what’s striking is their struggle to reconcile their own desire to recapture the White House with GOP primary voters’ preferences in their districts. Reactions to grassroots groundswells of support for Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, even among members from rural deep-red districts, ranged from puzzlement to palpable panic. . . . Simply put, many Capitol Hill Republicans are genuinely frightened that Trump or Cruz may not only guarantee Clinton the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, but could also badly divide the GOP and produce a down-ballot apocalypse.” [Cook Political Report, 1/26/16]
Politico: “Pollster: Cruz would hurt Repulbican House hopefuls most.” [Politico, 1/13/16]
Pollster Hired By NRCC Indicated Trump Nomination Would Damage Republicans’ Chances In Congressional Races. “Sackett’s presentation confirmed those worries. His poll showed that a plurality of respondents — 48 percent to 40 percent — would be less likely to vote for a Republican congressional candidate or incumbent if Trump were the nominee. The business mogul and former reality TV star, who has been leading in most GOP polls for months, was the only candidate surveyed on that question, the sources said.” [Politico, 1/13/16]
Politico: “Trump and Cruz send shivers down GOP spines.” [Politico, 1/5/16]
Former Chief Of Staff For McConnell, On Trump & Cruz: “There Are At Least Two Candidates Who Could Utterly Destroy The Republican Bench For A Generation If They Became The Nominee.” “One growing worry about Trump or Cruz, top party officials, donors, and operatives across the country say, is that nominating either man would imperil lawmakers in down-ballot races, especially those residing in moderate states and districts. ‘At some point, we have to deal with the fact that there are at least two candidates who could utterly destroy the Republican bench for a generation if they became the nominee,’ said Josh Holmes, a former chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. ‘We’d be hard-pressed to elect a Republican dogcatcher north of the Mason-Dixon or west of the Mississippi.’” [Politico, 1/5/16]
Trump Or Cruz As Nominees Would Endanger Republican House Members. “The House, where Republicans have a historic 30-seat majority, is more secure for the party. But there, too, the GOP has reason to worry: The party must defend nearly three dozen endangered seats — many of them in liberal-to-moderate states like California, New York and Florida. Should Trump or Cruz win the nomination, party operatives say, some longtime officeholders in more conservative districts such as New Jersey Rep. Scott Garrett or Florida Rep. John Mica, who typically skate to general election wins, could find themselves in tougher-than-usual contests.” [Politico, 1/5/16]
Politico: “GOP struggles to escape Trump trap” [Politico, 12/8/15]
Former Colorado GOP Chair: Trump As Nominee Would Have “Devastating Effect On Down-Ticket Races For Congress.” “‘If Donald Trump becomes our Party’s nominee for President, not only will have a devastating effect on down-ticket races for Congress and the state legislature throughout the country in 2016, it will taint the brand, party platform and perception of the GOP among Hispanics, young people, women, and other religious and ethnic minorities for years to come.’” [Politico, 12/8/15]
Politico: “Republicans fear Trump could jeopardize control of Congress.” [Politico, 12/9/15]
House & Senate GOP Leaders Warn Trump Will Cause Irreparable Harm To Party. “Republicans have spent many years and hundreds of millions of dollars wresting control of the House and Senate from Democrats. Now they say Donald Trump is putting it all in jeopardy. With the Iowa caucuses just 55 days away, Republicans are beginning to see Trump as a dire threat to their majorities on Capitol Hill. And they’re warning that the GOP poll leader, who this week called for a ban on Muslims entering the country, will cause irreparable harm to the party.” [Politico, 12/9/15]
NRCC Chair Greg Walden: Trump Rhetoric “Puts, Certainly, Competitive Seats In Jeopardy.” “And House Republicans are expecting to lose roughly a dozen seats in 2016. Trump’s rhetoric, they fear, could cause those losses to grow substantially. ‘This is not what we’re about as a party, and this is not what we’re about as a country, and we cannot yield to this,’ Oregon Rep. Greg Walden, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is charged with electing Republicans to the House, said Tuesday. ‘It puts, certainly, competitive seats in jeopardy. We’ll have a much more difficult time.’” [Politico, 12/9/15]
NRCC Deputy Chair Stivers: Trump Would Be “Devastating” And “Would Cost Us Seats.” “Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio), the NRCC’s deputy chairman in charge of helping reelect embattled GOP incumbents, was more blunt. ‘It would be devastating to our attempts to grow our majority and would cost us seats,’ Stivers said in an interview. Trump ‘would cost us seats. There are people that couldn’t win if he was our nominee.’” [Politico, 12/9/15]