|
New analysis from Franklin & Marshall offers a massive warning sign to vulnerable Pennsylvania Republicans: Their Big, Ugly Bill is politically toxic and will be the reason they lose next November.
The analysis shows that “six of the state’s eight most competitive counties have seen their Medicaid enrollments grow faster than the state average,” meaning that Republicans’ vote for the largest cuts to Medicaid in history is “likely to hurt their margins in the competitive counties” across the state.
And the analysis confirms what we already knew: “Driving voters towards the Democrats in the most competitive counties is a recipe for electoral disaster for Republicans.”
Read key points from the analysis below:
Franklin & Marshall Research: The One Big Beautiful Bill: Help or Hindrance to Republicans?
By Berwood A. Yost
July 16, 2025
- There seems little doubt, according to the CBO’s assessment, that households in the lowest income categories will be worse off because of reduced benefits provided through Medicaid (MA) and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) included in the bill. Many pundits have wondered why the Republicans would risk the recent gains they’ve made with working class voters by gutting programs those voters rely on.
- The counties in the state that Republicans count on for a large share of their votes are second only to Philadelphia in the proportion of residents currently enrolled in either SNAP or Medicaid programs. Electorally, Republican candidates win by running up their margins in rural and suburban areas to offset the advantages that Democrats have in the six larger, more urban counties that represent the Democratic base. In 2024, President Trump carried these 61 counties by about 23 points. About one in seven (15%) residents in these counties relied on food assistance (SNAP) and nearly one in four (22%) relied on Medicaid in 2024.
- Threatening these programs is clearly a risk for Republicans since so many people who live in areas that support Republican candidates are enrolled in them. But that explanation is by itself incomplete.
- The explanation is incomplete because 2024 presidential vote margin does relate to how much growth there has been in a county’s SNAP and Medicaid enrollments over the past 20 years. Statewide, enrollment in SNAP nearly doubled between 2004 and 2024, rising from 1.03 million enrollees to 2.02 million, an increase of 97%. Statewide enrollment in Medicaid also expanded during that time period, rising from 1.74 million to 2.99 million, an increase of 72%.
- Comparing the presidential results by growth in Medicaid enrollments at the county level shows something slightly different and perhaps more important from an electoral standpoint than looking at current enrollment rates. Six of the state’s eight most competitive counties have seen their Medicaid enrollments grow faster than the state average (the same is true for SNAP enrollments). Figure 2 displays the relationship between the change in Medicaid enrollment from 2004 to 2024 and the 2024 presidential vote margin in each county, with the most competitive and largest MA growth counties highlighted in gray. These counties include Bucks County in the Philadelphia suburbs, Lehigh, Monroe, and Northampton in the Lehigh Valley, and Lackawanna County in the northeast.
- What is particularly dangerous for Republican messaging in Pennsylvania is that they will be trying to deliver their preferred partisan message to voters who may be less inclined to see those messages through a partisan lens. As such, the benefits reductions risk not only reducing margins in communities where Republicans dominate, but are likely to hurt their margins in the competitive counties that decide statewide elections. Even if Republican messaging can successfully convince voters in Republican areas that this is about tax cuts, not benefit reductions, that message is less likely to resonate in the most competitive counties. Driving voters towards the Democrats in the most competitive counties is a recipe for electoral disaster for Republicans.
- What Does this Mean for the 2026 Midterm Election? The polling suggests that many of the components of the OBBA are unpopular and that the bill itself is one of the most unpopular pieces of legislation passed this century.
|
