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THE FRIDAY TAKEAWAY: The House is in Play

In case you missed it, DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján outlined in a memo to staff and members this week why the House is undoubtedly in play in 2018. This is the first time Luján has said this since becoming Chairman in 2015.

“We have a unique opportunity to flip control of the House of Representatives in 2018,” said DCCC Ben Ray Luján. “This is about much more than one race: the national environment, double-digit gains in the specials, unprecedented grassroots energy and impressive Democratic candidates stepping up to run deep into the battlefield leave no doubt that Democrats can take back the House next fall.”

Take a look at what people are saying…

MTP Daily: DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján: “The house is in play”                                        

 

 

NYT:  Memo From the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

Mr. Luján, moving to calm the party, circulated a memo to lawmakers and staff members that declared there was “no doubt that Democrats can take back the House next fall” in the midterm elections. He wrote that six to eight dozen seats held by Republican lawmakers would be easier for Democrats to capture than Georgia’s Sixth.

Citing snippets of private polling, Mr. Luján said there were Republican seats in southern Arizona and Florida, northern New Jersey and the Kansas City, Kan., suburbs, where Democratic challengers were already ahead of Republican incumbents.

Politico: DCCC seeks to rally demoralized troops

In a nearly 1,600-word Wednesday morning memo to committee staff that was obtained by POLITICO, the New Mexico congressman shared polling conducted between late March and mid-June showing Democrats in position to make gains in a handful of competitive seats held by Republicans.

[…] “We have a unique opportunity to flip control of the House of Representatives in 2018. This is about much more than one race: the national environment, unprecedented grassroots energy and impressive Democratic candidates stepping up to run deep into the battlefield leave no doubt that Democrats can take back the House next fall,” he writes elsewhere in the memo. “I don’t make this statement lightly — I’ve never said it before. I know the road back to a Democratic House majority will be long and hard.”

USA Today: After Georgia loss, Democrats’ campaign chief says full House in reach

“Is the momentum real? Is it building to the point that we can win 24 seats and take back the House? The answer is yes,” Rep. Ben Ray Luján, a New Mexico Democrat and chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a memo to DCCC staff released Wednesday.

The memo cited internal polls showing specific Democrats, whose names the DCCC would not release, leading against four GOP incumbents: Reps. Martha McSally of Arizona, Brian Mast of Florida, Kevin Yoder of Kansas and Rodney Frelinghuysen of New Jersey.

The Hill: Top Dem campaign official: House is in play for 2018

We have a unique opportunity to flip control of the House of Representatives in 2018,” Luján said in Wednesday’s memo. “This is about much more than one race: the national environment, unprecedented grassroots energy and impressive Democratic candidates stepping up to run deep into the battlefield leave no doubt that Democrats can take back the House next fall.”

[…] Looking toward 2018, Luján says the party is going to focus on recruitment. Senior DCCC staff and alumni plan to head to targeted districts to find “top-tier candidates to fill the remaining holes in our map.”

Huffington Post: Despite More Losses, Democrats Say They Can Win The House In 2018

“No president that’s been below 50 percent has ever picked up seats in their first midterm,” Lujan said. “We know the president’s approval rating will drag down Republicans going into 2018.”

It doesn’t help Trump that he appears to have admitted he’s under federal investigation for possible obstruction of justice. And he’s currently trying to usher an extremely unpopular bill through Congress that would strip health benefits from millions of people while cutting taxes for rich people.

Beyond that, Democrats expect a surge in pick-up opportunities in the midterms. There are 71 Republican-held districts that have fewer GOP-leaning electorates than Georgia’s 6th District, which has long been a conservative stronghold, according to the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voter Index. The fact that Ossoff lost by 3.8 percentage points when, per historical trends, he should have lost by more than 20 points, is a victory of sorts for Democrats.

Univision: Despite the Ossoff’s tough defeat in Georgia, Democrats ensure they can take back the majority in Congress

“La Cámara (de representantes) está en juego”, escribió Luján en un memorando interno dirigido al personal del DCCC al que Univision Noticias tuvo acceso, con el que buscaba levantar la moral de los demócratas al final de una temporada de elecciones especiales que no han dado los resultados que esperaban.

“¿Es este impulso real?¿Se está construyendo al punto que podemos ganar 24 puestos y retomar la Cámara? La respuesta es sí”, dice Luján en el texto, en el que nombra varios distritos en manos republicanas que pueden pasar al control demócrata, aunque no especifica quiénes podrían ser los candidatos.

“Esto es más que una sola carrera: el ambiente nacional, la energía de base sin precedente y los impresionantes candidatos demócratas que están surgiendo no dejan dudas que los demócratas pueden retomar la Cámara el próximo otoño”, afirma Luján.

McClatchy: What Jon Ossoff’s loss means for Democrats trying to win swing seats in Miami

Luján released a memo on Wednesday putting a positive spin on the loss for Democrats nationwide.

“The margin was close in this deep red district, and Jon Ossoff pushed the race to the limit in both the primary and runoff by impressively mobilizing the base and persuading independents and moderate Republicans,” he wrote. “We will carry those key lessons forward in order to compete in districts as Republican-leaning as Georgia, and in the dozens and dozens of districts on our battlefield that are much more competitive.”

Politics PA: DCCC Chair Says House is in Play, Sees Gains in PA

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Ben Ray Luján said for the first time that the House is in play for Democrats to gain the majority, and sees Pennsylvania as one of the main places to gain seats.

In a memo to committee staff, Luján touts internal DCCC polling that shows Democrats making gains in targeted districts, including some in Pennsylvania.

[…] In the memo, Luján touted the recruitment efforts of the DCCC including their efforts in Pennsylvania recruiting Chrissy Houlahan, who national Democrats have begun lining up behind in the 6th district.   

Palm Beach Post: EXCLUSIVE: Mast vulnerable in DCCC poll, could face Aronberg challenge

The DCCC memo says the House is still in play and that Mast is among several Republicans who are trailing in head-to-head matchups against specific — but not publicly named — candidates in a hypothetical race.

Mast, whose support for repealing the Affordable Care Act has generated opposition among some of his constituents, is trailing that unnamed candidate by three percentage points, the memo states.

Miami Herald: After Georgia loss, Democrats highlight improved generic polls in GOP-held South Florida districts

Recent Democratic polls in Florida’s 26th and 27th districts show Democrats doing better than they were when they surveyed voters in the same districts last October, wrote Ben Ray Luján, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Luján’s memo tried to keep Democrats motivated after Jon Ossoff’s loss to Republican Karen Handel in the Atlanta suburbs — a race that cost both sides about $55 million, the most expensive in history. In the memo, Luján listed 30 competitive districts Democrats plan to target to try to win back the House in 2018. They would need to flip 24 GOP-controlled districts to do so.

“The House is in play,” Luján wrote for the first time.

Star-Ledger: N.J. races key to Democrats winning back House in 2018

Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.) singled out Reps. Frank LoBiondo (R-2nd Dist.). Tom MacArthur (R-3rd Dist.), Leonard Lance (R-7th Dist.) and Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-11th Dist.) among the incumbents that could lose to strong Democratic challengers, given the current unpopularity of President Donald Trump.

Lance represents one of only 23 Republican-held districts that went for Hillary Clinton last fall, and Trump received less than 50 percent of the vote in Frelinghuysen’s district.

[…] “The national environment and historical trends are key indicators as well, and there’s no doubt that the momentum is on our side,” Lujan said.





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