| After spending two years making life harder for working families and taking Latino support for granted, Republicans are poised to lose come November. For months, polls have been chronicling how Latino voters have soured on Republicans and prefer Democrats to control Congress 57% to 31%.
Read the headlines for yourself:
CNN: ‘We’re in a red sinkhole’: Plummeting Latino support for Republicans could swing the midterms
- “All the prices go up — the gas, the food, the health insurance,” said Castro Fernandez, a Cuban American who identifies politically as independent and was canvassing with her union, which has backed the Democrat. By the end of the month, she said, families don’t “have all the money we need.”
- But the economic frustrations that helped propel Trump to victory are now fueling dissatisfaction among many of those same voters with Republicans who fully control the federal government.
- An NBC News/Telemundo poll released this month found that Latino voters say by a 24-point margin, 59% to 35%, that they’d prefer to see the Democrats win control of Congress over the Republicans in November. Exit polls in 2024 found that Trump drew 46% of the Latino vote, compared with 51% for Democrat Kamala Harris. In the NBC/Telemundo poll, just 27% of Latino voters approve of Trump’s job performance overall, with an even smaller 20% approving of his handling of the cost of living.
- “Republicans misread the love and the fervor of the MAGA movement as being something that was really deeply ingrained in Latino communities, and overshot their hand,” Gavito said.
NPR: With an ad aimed at Trump, this Republican exposed GOP angst about Latino voters
- But what started as a typical day at the park last week took a turn: Miami police arrested a player in the middle of a game after a dispute with a city worker. It spurred other players to worry about deportations, setting off a broader political debate over whether President Trump or former President Biden was responsible for a higher cost of living.
- Cuban Americans, the district’s largest Latino group, have been reliable Trump supporters. But many of their friends and relatives have been swept up by the administration’s deportation agenda. A crack among them could signal broader trouble for Latino support for Republican candidates.
- Salazar’s read of the effect of Trump’s policies may be right. Polling firm Equis Research found in a recent survey of registered voters who identify as Hispanic or Latino that if the election for Congress were held today, voters would pick the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate by a margin of 57 to 31.
Axios: Mike Johnson’s Latino voter problem keeps getting worse
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) needs Latino voters to stick with Republicans as they did in 2024. But new polling shows they’re drifting back toward Democrats at levels not seen in years.
- The big picture: Democrats have their widest lead of the year against Republicans, 57% to 31%, on the generic congressional ballot, according to new polling from Equis Research.
- In battleground districts, Democrats lead 62%–38% among likely Latino voters in two-way races, ahead of the party’s 2022 level of 57%.
- Between the lines: Economic concerns — and rising gas prices — are driving much of the dissatisfaction, particularly the cost of living.
- 76% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, which 52% identify as their top issue.
- 54% trust Democrats more on the economy, compared with 33% who trust Republicans.
- That gives Democrats a 21-point advantage on the economy, up from just 7 points in February.
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