| On the day of the special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, an anonymous House Republican told Politico, “If our victory margin is single digits, the conference may come unhinged.”
Now, after Democrats massively overperformed by 13 points in TN-07, House Republicans are becoming increasingly unhinged as they stare down an epic defeat in next year’s midterm elections.
Here are some facts about what the overperformance in TN-07 means for the battle of control of the House next year:
- Washington Post: “Republicans said fears of electoral troubles now extend beyond the initial 16 GOP incumbents placed on the “Patriots” program by the National Republican Congressional Committee, into districts that a few months ago would have been considered fairly easy reelection victories.”
- CNN’s Harry Enten: “This is a 13 point gain for the Democrats in terms of the margin, and excuse time for the Republicans is over … The turnout last night in Tennessee’s 7th District was equal to the turnout in the 2022 midterm election. So the blue wave, it seems to be building”
- New York Times: “Roughly 100 Republican-held seats were less pro-Trump in 2024 than Tennessee’s Seventh, and Democrats need to flip only three seats to win a House majority next year.”
- Cook Political Report: “Ultimately, Behn’s performance matches Democrats’ showing across special elections so far this cycle and is another harbinger that storm clouds are on the horizon for Republicans in 2026. On average, Democratic candidates have run 13 points ahead of Harris. Isolating the four U.S. House special elections earlier this year, Democrats overperformed Harris by an even-higher 18 points.”
DCCC Spokesperson Justin Chermol:
“The weak and extreme House Republican majority is coming to an epic collapse next year. Everyone knows it.” |
