Time to accept reality. With Trump’s primary victory last night in Indiana and Ted Cruz and John Kasich’s withdrawal from the presidential race, House Republicans now face a nightmare scenario this November: sharing the ticket with Donald Trump.
This is bad news for Republicans on a number of levels. Here are a few:
- House Republicans are now stuck between a rock and a hard place with Republican voters.
- Option 1:Attempt to distance themselves from Trump, in order to mitigate the damage with massive blocs of voters turned off by Trump
- Option 2: Endorse Trump in order to maintain support from the Republican primary voters that have energetically supported Trump, and in so doing, turn off everyone else.
- Trump Shines National Spotlight on House Republican Bigotry & Divisive Positions:
- Donald Trump’s hateful positions and rhetoric attacking Mexicans, women, Muslims, disabled people and others, shine a national spotlight on the very similar comments that many House Republicans have made.
- Even if Republicans think those positions are behind them, Trump has now raised voters’ awareness of these ugly issues. These similarities will help voters see that House Republicans are one in the same with Trump.
- Voter Turnout that Benefits Democrats:
- Turnout is higher in presidential years, which almost always benefits Democrats. This year in particular, Democrats up and down the ticket will benefit from notable enthusiasm amongst women, millennials, Latinos, African-Americans and others.
- Meanwhile, Trump’s presence at the top of the ticket is likely to stifle enthusiasm amongst typical Republican and independent voters in November.
- This is bad news for House Republicans in competitive seats that can be won or lost by just a few hundred votes.
- Rarity of Split-Ticket Voters Means Distancing from Trump Won’t Ultimately Work:
- It’s increasingly common for people to vote straight party lines, meaning that the huge blocs of key voters that are turned off by Trump will be less likely to cross over and vote for House Republicans.
- As Dave Wasserman puts it, “The 2012 election saw the lowest percent of split ticket voting since 1908 at 5.7%. That’s a welcome trend for Democrats: in a Trump scenario, they would have a field day putting Republican candidates on the defensive by forcing them to repudiate every one of Trump’s statements…. Democrats would simply hope that the long-term rise in straight-ticket voting holds true, even if Trump loses in a landslide.”
- Trump Will Continue to Dominate Narrative & Overshadow any Alternate Republican Messaging
- Donald Trump has dominated the national narrative thus far, and he will continue to hold the largest megaphone thanks to his ever-shocking comments and obsession with dominating every news cycle.
- Speaker Ryan, Republican incumbents and candidates will undoubtedly try to create an alternate reality, focus on a 2017 policy agenda or otherwise distract from Trump, but this is a nationalized election cycle and their efforts will fail.
“Let us list the many layers of bad news that the Trump Ticket brings to House Republicans. House Republicans are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and will be forced to choose between Trump’s rabid GOP base supporters or the women, millennials, independents, minority voters, and even Republicans that he disgusts. Beyond that, Trump’s nomination will shine a spotlight on the similarly offensive records and policy positions of House Republicans, and they will be inseparably tied to Trump in the eyes of voters on election day,” said Meredith Kelly of the DCCC.