IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
As of this week, The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both have Utah’s 4th District as a Toss Up.
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UT-04: Rep. Mia Love (R) – Central: southern Salt Lake City suburbs
Toss Up. Democrats have no business competing in a district where 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney took 68 percent of the vote, but there’s something of a perfect storm brewing in Utah. Freshman GOP Rep. Mia Love still hasn’t bonded with this deeply red seat. And now, Donald Trump’s nomination creates the possibility many Mormon Republicans will stay home.
Democratic attorney Doug Owens, who held Love to 51 percent in the 2014 GOP wave, is running again and is much better-funded this time. Like former Rep. Jim Matheson, Owens is a rare Mormon Democrat and emphasizes he’s not a highly partisan person. His narrow path would require a coalition of Democrats and business-minded Republicans, but Love starts out in rough shape.
A new Salt Lake Tribune/Hinckley Institute poll conducted by SurveyUSA showed the incumbent trailing Owens 51 percent to 45 percent, with slightly more voters holding an unfavorable than favorable view of Love. That’s not shocking, considering Love was hammered in local media last fall for using her official congressional funds to fly to the glitzy White House Correspondents Dinner.
Unlike last cycle, when they were caught napping, Republicans will tie Owens to unpopular, liberal national Democrats in their ads. For a time, that justified keeping this race in Lean Republican. But with multiple polls depicting a close race between Trump and Hillary Clinton in Utah, Love may not be able to count on the “normal” fundamentals of the district to get her across the finish line.