News · Press Release

ICYMI: Cook Political Report Shifts AZ-02 & WA-05 Towards Democrats

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

“The combination of costly Republican retirements, a terrible national environment, and Speaker Ryan’s deeply unpopular agenda is further threatening swing districts and even damaging previously entrenched members of House leadership,” said DCCC Spokesman Tyler Law.

Here’s a look at some big ratings changes in the latest Cook Political Report analysis…

AZ-02 (Open)

  • Toss Up to Leans Democratic

But without McSally, Republicans may struggle to hold this district. In fact, Democrats are hoping for a scenario in which McSally loses the GOP Senate nomination to a more conservative candidate and moderate Republicans abandon the ticket altogether, allowing Democrats to waltz into this middle-of-the-road seat.

McSally’s votes for the Republican health care and tax bills had already made her the target of Democratic attacks, and it makes sense that McSally is running for Senate: President Trump lost the 2nd CD, but won statewide in 2016…

[…] If this were a neutral national environment, this open seat would be a Toss Up. But with President Trump’s approval hovering in the 40 percent range, this race moves to the Lean Democratic column.

READ FULL ANALYSIS

WA-05 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)

  • Solid Republican to Likely Republican

Eastern Washington is not normally a place you’d expect a competitive House race, but in this political climate, problems for Republicans are popping up in surprising places. House GOP Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the only female member of the House GOP leadership elite since 2012, has been a high-profile supporter of the party’s legislative agenda. But as that agenda’s popularity has faded, so has her political security back home.

[…] Yet the depth of support for McMorris Rodgers after 13 years in office is a bit of a question mark. Washington has a top-two system of elections, meaning the top two primary vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election. In 2016, McMorris Rodgers garnered a very weak 42 percent in the August top-two primary, while 15 percent went to fellow Republican Tom Horne, who railed against her as the “establishment.”

This year, Democrats have a very credible nominee in Lisa Brown, a former state legislator and university administrator who was most recently chancellor of Washington State University-Spokane. Brown, who was a state representative between 1993 and 1997 and a state senator between 1997 and 2013 (including as majority leader), has also taught economics and leadership classes at Eastern Washington University and Gonzaga University in the past.

READ FULL ANALYSIS

 





Please make sure that the form field below is filled out correctly before submitting.