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ICYMI: Deja Vu All Over Again. Health Care Takes Center Stage in 2018 Campaigns [Cook Political Report]

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Deja Vu All Over Again. Health Care Takes Center Stage in 2018 Campaigns | Cook Political Report
By Amy Walter
March 22, 2018
http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/deja-vu-all-over-again-health-care-takes-center-stage-2018#.WrQFks_UYLE.twitter

There’s always something of a disconnect between what Washington, DC is obsessed about and what the rest of the country is worried about. In DC, of course, the story is Robert Mueller, Russia and White House chaos. Out in congressional races, however, Democratic candidates aren’t talking about any of those things. Instead, their primary focus is health care; specifically, their criticism of GOP attempts to repeal Obamacare. Ironically, while the passage of Obamacare cost Democrats their House majority in 2010, GOP attempts to repeal Obamacare may help Democrats flip House control in 2018.

[…] Democrats seem to be betting that health care — costs and access — will be the more salient issue in 2018. In fact, as we saw in the special election in PA-18, Democrat Conor Lamb made the case that many of his constituents are going to have to use their tax cut refund to pay for escalating health care costs. It’s also true that Americans are more emotionally attached to health care than they are to almost any other issue.

[…]But, eight years later, Obamacare is more popular than ever. A February Kaiser Foundation poll found the long-maligned health care law garnering 54 percent approval, including 55 percent among independents.

[…] Moreover, with Democrats no longer in charge in Washington, the issue of health care is now the responsibility of the GOP. Trump has repeatedly pledged to “let Obamacare fail.” Almost every House Republican voted for a bill that would repeal Obamacare. And, Congress won’t help shore up insurers in the exchanges — referred to in DC as Obamacare stabilization — which could lead to insurers jacking up rates.

[…] It’s clear that Democrats see the issue as much more politically potent this year as well. Scroll through the ads Democrats have run in the primaries, or watch their campaign videos, and you’ll find almost all mentioning the “Trump” or “GOP plan” to take away, or raise the cost of health insurance. In her announcement video , Democrat Angie Craig, running against GOP Rep. Jason Lewis in suburban Minneapolis, highlights her family’s challenges in paying the health care bills of her younger sister, and chides Lewis for “his votes to dramatically increase the cost of insurance, and kick millions off health care.”

In Illinois, almost every Democratic candidate running in a competitive House district made health care a part or centerpiece of their campaign message. The top two vote-getters in the crowded Democratic primary in suburban Chicago’s 6th district (held by Republican Pete Roskam) both attacked Trump’s position on health care.  […] Sean Casten, an environmental engineer and winner of the primary, attacked Trump for “gutting health care.”

A nurse and former HHS official under President Obama, Lauren Underwood won the primary for the exurban Chicago-based 14th district currently held by GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren. Her ads featured her in scrubs, where she boasted of her work in “expanding access to care” while “our congressman has not looked out for the folks in the 14th district.” Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, who won the Democratic primary to face Rep. Rodney Davis in the Springfield-based 13th district, talked of her son’s rare and almost fatal infection, arguing that “Trump’s health care plan would have bankrupted us.”

Last week, I met half a dozen Democratic candidates running for GOP-held seats. Every one of them mentioned health care as one of the main reasons for their candidacy. Most mentioned the vote the GOP incumbent had taken last year to repeal Obamacare, framing it as a Republican attempt to “take away health care” from district constituents that will raise the cost of insurance.

[…] With Obamacare as popular as it is among Democrats (the Kaiser poll found support from Democrats at 83 percent), it makes sense to see the issue dominating primary campaign advertising. Even so, it’s clear that this is an issue that Democrats believe can woo independents and undercut Republican attempts to cast the election as a referendum on the healthy economy.

[…] Similarly, while the 2017 health care vote may feel like old news to those of us trying to keep up with the daily torrent of salaciousness coming from the White House, it’s anything but dated — or insignificant — for voters.

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