“After getting the second-lowest vote share of any congressional incumbent in the state, Congressman Jeff Denham’s weakness among his own base is on full display,” said DCCC spokesperson Drew Godinich. “In the most difficult race of his career, Denham’s anemic performance on Tuesday shows how low his re-election chances are this November.”
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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Modesto Bee: Denham and Harder prepare for high-stakes battle as dust settles from primary
http://www.modbee.com/news/politics-government/election/article212697444.html
Does the path to Congress in November for incumbent Jeff Denham or challenger Josh Harder run through third-place finisher Ted Howze?
If people voting for all five Democrats in Tuesday’s Primary line up behind Harder in the fall, it won’t be enough to unseat Denham, a Republican in the House since 2010. The five Democrats combined for less than 47 percent of Tuesday’s vote, according to incomplete returns.
But Denham’s margin of victory appears to be shrinking, in historic terms; although his 37.7 percent on Tuesday more than doubled Harder’s 15.7 percent, Denham has lost ground from the 59 percent he won in the 2014 Primary, and from his 48 percent in the 2016 Primary.
“It’s an embarrassing result for Jeff Denham,” Harder said. “I think Howze’s success shows Jeff Denham has an awful lot of folks in his party who are deeply dissatisfied.”
Politically, Howze ran to the right of Denham — closer to President Donald Trump — and surprised many with a 14.4 percent finish. That isn’t enough to advance to November, but Howze trailed Harder by only 850 votes among more than 65,000 cast.
The 10th Congressional District covers Stanislaus County and the southern part of San Joaquin County. Voter registration is split between Republicans and Democrats.
Voters favoring other Democratic candidates on Tuesday’s ballot — Michael Eggman (11 percent), Virginia Madueño (9 percent), Sue Zwahlen (8.7 percent) and Mike Barkley (2.5 percent), as well as Dotty Nygard (1 percent) — are expected to swing to Harder in the fall.
“Now it is time we all unite behind Josh Harder,” Eggman said Wednesday.
The question seems to be whether Howze’s supporters are put off enough by Denham to support a Democrat in November, or simply sit that one out.
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Although it’s hard to envision the conservative Howze backing a Democrat, he said Wednesday that his fall endorsement isn’t a given. When counts from Tuesday are final (surging ahead of Harder is “unlikely, let’s be honest,” Howze said), he plans to sit down with both candidates for heart-to-heart discussions.
“I’m not convinced at this point,” Howze said. “I’m going to do what’s best for the valley.”
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