In Case You Missed It
The Los Angeles Times
By Sarah D. Wire
October 31, 2016
…Denham’s 10th Congressional District may end up being an example of what Republicans fear could happen across the country: Voters turned off by Trump’s rhetoric may not vote at all, and the party could lose seats it has usually held. Early voting is underway in California and 26 other states, and there is little time left for Republicans to change the momentum.
…Trump’s comments about immigrants, especially his calling Mexican immigrants criminals and rapists, could pose a problem in a district where almond and walnut farms dot the San Joaquin Valley and the population is more than 40% Latino. Voters there have historically tended to be Republican, but have been fairly split in recent years. Democrats recently took the lead in voter registration in Stanislaus County.
Denham called [Trump’s comments about grabbing women without their consent] “beyond inappropriate” but has not backed away from supporting his party’s nominee (though he doesn’t especially like to use Trump’s name).
…“People here in the Valley don’t like Trump’s dismissive, nasty agenda and they certainly don’t like that Congressman Denham supports him,” [said Eggman].
…Political handicappers are calling the 10th District a toss-up at this point.
“Denham may have $2.3 million on hand to Democratic bee farmer Michael Eggman’s $503,000, but he’s sitting in a 42 percent Latino district that twice voted narrowly for President Obama and still hasn’t rescinded his endorsement of Trump,” the nonpartisan analysts at the Cook Political Report wrote to explain why they moved the race from their “leans Republican” category — meaning they expected Denham to win but Eggman had a chance — to their “toss-up” category.
For most of the year, Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, rated the seat as “likely” to remain with Denham. Then, in September, he moved it to “leaning” Republican, before flipping it to a “toss-up” this month.