Democrats Continue Fortifying Inroads Across California
“After flipping seven seats in California in 2018, the DCCC began this election cycle by hiring and training dozens of experienced field managers to hold Republicans accountable, extend our margins and make greater Democratic inroads to fortify recent successes. While Republicans rinse and repeat their failed 2018 strategy with the same playbook and the same candidates, Democrats have been registering voters and organizing to win from day one and will not stop working until November 2020,” said DCCC Spokesperson, Andy Orellana.
By JOHN MYERS // NOV. 11, 2019
Democrats made history two years ago by knocking off seven Republican congressional incumbents, a key component of the party’s takeover of the House of Representatives. GOP candidates are already lining up in hopes of taking back some of those seats.
But brand-new voter registration data suggest that won’t be so easy. In fact, there are very few pieces of good news for Republicans in the report released last week by state elections officials.
DEMOCRATS MAKE INROADS IN BATTLEGROUNDS
While voter registration is a dynamic thing and the numbers change every day, this analysis examines the official state report issued 154 days before the primary election in March and compares it with the same period in 2018. (The report also offers a fascinating comparison to 2016, but we’ll get to that in a moment.)
Simply put: In almost every House district in which a Republican incumbent lost in 2018, Democrats have either expanded their lead in registered voters or narrowed the registration gap — thus boosting their chances of holding the seat in 2020 and perhaps giving them some room to embrace their party’s effort in the impeachment inquiry against President Trump.
Democrats outnumbered Republicans in three of the seven districts at this same point before the 2018 election season and now are clearly the dominant party in four of the districts — those currently represented by Reps. Josh Harder (D-Turlock), T.J. Cox (D-Fresno) and Gil Cisneros (D-Yorba Linda) and the one that was represented by Democrat Katie Hill until her recent, abrupt resignation.
Democrats have just about doubled their registration edge in Harder’s San Joaquin Valley district and in Hill’s former district encompassing outlying communities in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. For Cisneros, the numbers are especially good: His seat representing Orange County as well as parts of Los Angeles and San Bernardino has flipped from a Republican plurality to now having Democrats as top dogs.
In the other three districts — won in 2018 by Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), Harley Rouda (D-Laguna Beach) and Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) — longtime Republican dominance has again weakened. None are more notable than Porter’s Orange County district, where Republicans had a 14.2-percentage point advantage in 2016 and now have seen that gap shrink to less than 4 percentage points.
NOV. 08, 2019
With the 2020 elections approaching, California voter registration figures released Wednesday tell a familiar story: Democrats are expanding their ranks, Republicans are struggling, and the fastest-growing group remains those voters aligned with no party at all — independents.
In some competitive congressional districts in Southern California, the recent tally appeared encouraging for Democrats.
At this point before the 2018 primaries, Republicans held a slim registration edge in the GOP-held 39th District, which was picked up by Democrat Gil Cisneros that year. But the advantage has flipped: Democrats now hold a 2-point edge in registration, the figures showed.
In Orange County’s 45th District, which was captured last year by Democrat Katie Porter, Republicans held an 8-point registration edge in the months before the 2018 primary. Heading toward the 2020 contests, that GOP advantage has been cut in half.
In the nearby 48th District, which was captured by Democrat Harley Rouda last year, Republicans had a comfortable 11-point advantage heading into the 2018 primary. That edge is now 7 points, the figures showed.
David Taub // Nov. 11th, 2019
State records show that 80.65% of eligible Californians are registered to vote. That’s the highest percentage since June 1952. As of Oct. 1, there were 20,328,636 Californians registered.
The trend is largely reflected locally as well. The state saw a 20% increase in registration compared to the same period prior to the 2016 presidential primary election. In Fresno County, there was a 13% increase.
Republican registration suffered, with declines state- and county-wide, and in the city of Fresno. Clovis saw an increase in GOP registration (9%), but the gains were below those for NPP (42%) and Democrats (22%). Democrats saw a 1% gain statewide but got a 10% bounce in the county and a 9% bump in the city of Fresno.
For the congressional and state legislative offices representing all or parts of Fresno, the numbers continue to reflect the party of the incumbent.
Congressman TJ Cox (D-Fresno) and state Senator Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger) both won their respective seats in 2018. Their wins over Republican incumbents aligned the party of the representative to the political demographics of the district.