Spoiler: It’s bad news for the GOP
Last week, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported that vulnerable GOP Congressmen Mike McCaul, Chip Roy, Pete Olson, Will Hurd, Kenny Marchant, and John Carter are so nervous about their re-election campaigns that they are already begging the National Republican Congressional Committee for help. Now, a look at Texas’ shifting political landscape from Texas Tribune executive editor Ross Ramsey helps shed light on why. As Ramsey points out, “In 2016, the Republican candidate beat the Democratic candidate by an average of 14.1 percentage points. In 2018, that dropped to 7.3 percentage points.”
“There is no question that Washington Republicans are growing more and more out of touch with Texas voters – just look at their support for raising taxes and the cost of health care for middle-class families,” said DCCC Spokesperson Brooke Goren. “With Democrats’ momentum coming out of 2018 and six vulnerable GOP incumbents up for reelection in 2020, things aren’t looking good for House Republicans in the Lone Star State.”
Texas Tribune: Political Climate Changes in Texas Congressional Districts
By Ross Ramsey
KEY POINTS:
“When political consultants were scouring the state’s 2016 election results two years ago, they found three Texas congressional districts where voters had kept Republican incumbents in office while also favoring Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Those districts became targets, and two of those three incumbents are no longer in Congress.”
“Three Republican members of the delegation — U.S. Reps. Michael McCaul of Austin, Will Hurd of Helotes and Kenny Marchant of Coppell — won in districts where U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz lost to Beto O’Rourke (though Cruz won statewide).”
“On the other side, Cruz didn’t prevail in any of the districts won by Democratic congressional candidates.”
“None of the congressional districts that were in the Democratic column in 2016 moved to the Republican side, but two moved in the other direction: CD-23, barely a red district in 2016, was barely a blue one in 2018, and CD-32 slightly favored Democrats in 2018 after showing Republicans a 10.7-percentage-point advantage in 2016. The first, represented by Hurd, was drawn as a swing district and was, until recently, the only one on the Texas map. The other is now represented by U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, who defeated Pete Sessions. The writing was on the wall there, too: Clinton narrowly defeated Trump in that district in 2016.”
“Add CD-24, where Marchant is the incumbent, to that target list. He won re-election. Statewide Republicans won in that district by 4 percentage points, on average. Trump won by about 6, but O’Rourke won by 3.5 percentage points.”
“One big difference between the 2016 and the 2018 elections in Texas was the overall strength of Democratic candidates. Republicans won every statewide race in both of those years, but the margins were very different: In 2016, the Republican candidate beat the Democratic candidate by an average of 14.1 percentage points. In 2018, that dropped to 7.3 percentage points.”