In case you missed it, the non-partisan election forecaster Cook Political Report just moved 8 more races towards Democrats. Citing the unprecedented amount of money Democratic candidates raised in the third quarter of the year, Cook’s David Wasserman noted, ‘It’s becoming harder and harder to see Republicans’ path to holding the majority.’
Races that moved towards Democrats:
- FL-26 (Carlos Curbelo)
- Lean R to Toss Up
- KS-03 (Kevin Yoder)
- Toss Up to Lean D
- MI-03 (Justin Amash)
- Solid R to Likely R
- MI-11 (Open)
- Toss Up to Lean D
- NY-21 (Elise Stefanik)
- Solid R to Likely R
- NY-24 (John Katko)
- Likely R to Lean R
- PA-17 (Keith Rothfus)
- Lean D to Likely D
- UT-04 (Mia Love)
- Lean R to Toss Up
On top of that, LA Times polling released this morning shows Democrats surging across California’s most competitive House seats:
- CA-49: Levin 55, Harkey 41
- CA-48: Rouda 48, Rohrabacher 48
- CA-45: Porter 52, Walters 45
- CA-39: Cisneros 49, Kim 48
- CA-25: Hill 50, Knight 46
- CA-10: Harder 50, Denham 45
- CA-22: Nunes 53, Janz 45
- CA-50: Hunter 49, Campa-Najjar 47
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House Rating Changes: Eight More GOP Seats Move Towards Democrats
Cook Political Report
By David Wasserman
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-eight-more-gop-seats-move-towards-democrats
Five weeks out, several personally popular Republicans who appeared to be defying the “blue wave” in Clinton-won districts are beginning to see their leads erode. GOP Reps. Carlos Curbelo (FL-26), John Katko (NY-24) and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01) led most surveys over the summer but are now prime targets as their well-funded Democratic challengers become better-known and the Kavanaugh debate further polarizes voters into red and blue corners.
It’s becoming harder and harder to see Republicans’ path to holding the majority. In the past few days, multiple Democrats challengers have announced staggering fundraising totals of more than $3 million during the third quarter of the year, exceeding what many predecessors have raised for an entire cycle. One high-ranking Republican worries his party could be “buried under an avalanche” of Democratic money that GOP outside groups can’t match.
After today’s ratings changes, there are 15 GOP-held seats in Lean or Likely Democratic (including seven incumbents) and Democrats would only need to win 11 of the 31 races in the Toss Up column to flip the majority. There’s still time for political conditions to change, but today the likeliest outcome appears to be a Democratic gain of between 25 and 40 seats (they need 23 for House control).