Today, non-partisan election forecasters at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics downgraded Rep. Scott Taylor’s chances at winning reelection, changing the rating of his seat from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
“This month’s elections in Virginia showed that there is unprecedented Democratic energy in Hampton Roads, but it’s not just that this district is moving away from Rep. Scott Taylor, he is moving away from this district,” said DCCC spokesperson Jacob Peters. “By voting to rip healthcare away from his constituents, raise their premiums, and now hike their taxes, Scott Taylor has failed to be the independent leader that he pretends to be.”
—
House 2018: Less Than a Year Out, Race for Control Is a Coin Flip
By Kyle Kondik
November 30, 2017
Likely Republican to Leans Republican (8): […] Scott Taylor (R, VA-2)
These members did not face a surprise remap, but the ground underneath them shifted left last year and may continue to do so with Trump in the White House. All of these districts are in suburban areas that are similar to the places in Virginia that swung hard against Trump in 2016 and then swung even harder to Gov.-elect Ralph Northam (D) in the recent gubernatorial race, and the environment might make things difficult for them next year almost no matter what they do.
Trump carried a fifth district listed here, Taylor’s Hampton Roads-based VA-2, but Northam flipped it earlier this month and it is perpetual swing territory. Democrats have struggled with recruiting in this district the past couple of cycles, but they hope Elaine Luria (D), a retired naval commander, can run a good race in this military-heavy district (Taylor, a retired Navy SEAL, has military bona fides as well and defeated incumbent Randy Forbes in a redistricting-driven GOP primary last year). Our ratings change here is more about the environment and trends in Virginia than about Luria’s likely candidacy specifically; as with all recent entrants into these races, we’ll have to wait and see how she performs.