Reminder: Democrats Flipped 40 Seats In 2018
The House Republican retirement crisis is bad. Like really bad. And the historic number of Republicans running for the exits suggest House Republicans have given up on retaking the majority.
Apparently Leader McCarthy agrees? He told Roll Call that 2020 Republican retirements remind him of 2018…when Republicans lost 40 seats (and their majority).
Although the number of House retirements is above average so far, McCarthy noted the 2018 cycle saw an unusually high number of retirements, especially from lawmakers in competitive seats. Thirty-three lawmakers retired in the 2018 cycle, including 23 Republicans and 10 Democrats, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
In case you missed the Roll Call piece McCarthy mistakenly wants you to read:
House retirements already outpace average for past election cycles
By Bridget Bowman | Roll Call
Key Points
- More than three times as many Republicans, many of whom are serving in the minority for the first time, decided to retire as Democrats. Twenty-one Republicans are retiring while six Democrats are heading for the exits.
- Nine lawmakers — eight Republicans and one Democrat — are leaving districts that could be competitive races in 2020, according to Inside Elections’ race ratings.
- But the high number of retirements in solidly Republican districts has still raised questions about whether party veterans do not want to run on the same ballot as Trump, or have concluded the GOP will not win back the House in 2020. Republicans need a net gain of 18 seats to win the majority.
- Some lawmakers decide to retire after spending time with their families during the holidays, so there could be more announcements as members of Congress return next week.
- Early in 2019, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put out a “retirement watch” list of 23 Republicans, most in districts the DCCC sees as potential pickup opportunities. So far, two of those lawmakers resigned and six announced their retirements.
- Michigan GOP Rep. Fred Upton is on the DCCC’s watch list and is often mentioned as a potential retirement. Upton has not said whether he is running for reelection, although he has some time to announce his decision since the Michigan filing deadline is April 21.