“Last night’s California congressional primary results offer a clear preview of what’s to come in November, and it doesn’t look pretty for Republicans. Democrats swept open seats, Republicans failed to recruit credible candidates to take on strong Democratic incumbents, and Democratic challengers are on offense against vulnerable Trump Republicans,” said Barb Solish of the DCCC.
Democrats Sweep Open Seats
Last night, Democrats were able to virtually declare general election victory in three of the state’s open seats – CA-20, CA-44, and CA-46 – and are in a strong position in the highly competitive CA-24.
Despite repeated attempts to undermine Santa Barbara Supervisor Salud Carbajal with deceptive tactics aimed at splitting up Democratic votes in the complex jungle primary, Republicans ultimately came up (far) short. At last check, two right-wing Republicans are still dueling for second place—a full 12 points behind Carbajal.
Carbajal’s impressive victory in last night’s primaries ensure that Democrats have the best chance to hold on to a key seat not just in 2016, but well into the future.
Democratic Incumbents Scare Off Real Recruits
The strength of Democratic incumbents, who won some of the toughest races of the 2014 cycle, was demonstrated by the Republican’s inability to draw strong – or even mildly credible – challengers.
CA-07: Dr. Ami Bera garnered an unprecedented 53.3% of the vote last night, beating out scandal-ridden Sacramento Sheriff Scott Jones by over six points. It’s clear that Sacramento voters know they deserve more than Jones’ poor moral judgement, weak leadership, and penchant for wasting taxpayer money.
CA-26: Republicans came up short in Rep. Julia Brownley’s 26th District with Rafael Dagnesses, an unserious candidate who shares a similarly hostile approach to immigrants as Donald Trump, like having the government spy on mosques and advocating for building a wall that would cost billions and achieve nothing.
CA-31: There is no greater example of the failure of the NRCC to recruit a credible candidate than Paul Chabot. Chabot, who lost to Rep. Pete Aguilar in the 31st District in 2014, wrote an e-book blaming the NRCC for his loss. Chabot is about extreme as they come. For example, Chabot is staunchly opposed to abortion, even in the case of rape or incest.
CA-36: Dr. Ruiz of Palm Springs’ 36th District, a constant target of national Republicans, only drew a State Senator challenger best known for flashing an honorary police badge during an apparent road rage incident.
CA-52: In San Diego, Republicans threw a Hail Mary with D.C. Lobbyist Denise Gitsham, who is far, far outside the mainstream on the issues and is already demonstrating the lack of transparency one would expect from a D.C. lobbyist. Rep. Scott Peters, on the other hand, has raised over $2 million and has gained support from across the political spectrum, including Planned Parenthood Action Fund and the San Diego Chamber of Commerce.
Democrats on Offense Against Vulnerable Trump Republicans
California’s three most vulnerable Republican incumbents Jeff Denham, Steve Knight, and David Valadao continue to be engulfed in the flames of the presidential Trumpster fire.
If the past year is prologue for the next five months, then these three are in for the fights of their lives. Congressmen Denham, Knight, and Valadao will own the divisive priorities and offensive policies that Trump promotes between now and Election Day, turning off Latinos, African Americans, women and other voters whose support they need in a presidential year in their swing districts.
CA-10: Local farmer Michael Eggman will be holding D.C. millionaire Congressman Jeff Denham accountable not only for his endorsement of Trump, but also for his continued pattern of putting D.C. Republican leaders before Central Valley families.
CA-21: Like his friend Denham, the longer that Congressman David Valadao stays in Congress, the less it seems he fights for the Central Valley and the more he falls in line with his D.C. Party leadership. No matter who faces him in the fall, Valadao will be in one serious fight, especially in the 21st district where 73 percent of the population is Latino.
CA-25: Strong Democratic consumer rights attorney Bryan Caforio will take on Congressman Steve Knight in November. In addition to Trump’s toxicity, Knight will have to own his out of touch beliefs – like that Social Security was “a bad idea” – and will be held accountable for his negligence during the Porter Ranch gas leak and his ethical lapses.