Regardless of the outcome of tonight’s Wisconsin primary, the GOP will stumble into further chaos and disarray. When Republican Senator Lindsey Graham was asked in January about the prospect of backing either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz for president, he infamously joked that the choice felt like deciding between “being shot or poisoned.”
That hypothetical scenario has become a nightmarish reality for House Republicans. Whether Cruz wins as expected, or Trump squeaks out a surprising victory, House Republicans are looking at the real prospect of running alongside a candidate that is highly unpopular amongst women, Latinos, millennials, independents and other key voting blocs.
Donald Trump:
- Republicans: According to a just-released national NBC News poll, only 45% of Republican or Republican-leaning voters support Trump.
- Women: A Gallup poll from last week showed that Trump’s popularity is plunging to all-time lows, with 7 out of 10 women holding unfavorable views of him.
- Republican Women: According to a recent Pew poll, only 38% of Republican women support Trump.
- Men: In the same Gallup poll, nearly 6 out of 10 men (58%) hold unfavorable views toward Trump.
- Hispanics: Nearly 7 out of 10 of persuadable Hispanic voters (67%) have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump, according to Univision/Media Predict
- Millennials: Among millennials (people age 18-34), Trump’s unfavorable rating is nearly 78%, according to a recent CNN poll.
- Independents: Among independents, Trump has a 68% unfavorability rating, according to a recent CNN poll.
Ultra-conservative Cruz is not far behind, and in some categories, has more notable unfavorable ratings with these groups.
Ted Cruz:
- Republicans: According to a just-released national NBC News poll, only 28% of Republican or Republican-leaning voters support Ted Cruz. Worse than Trump!
- Women: A Gallup poll found that Ted Cruz has a 16-point net negative rating among women. Bad!
- Republican Women: According to a Pew poll, only 34% of Republican women support Cruz. Worse than Trump!
- Men: According to a Gallup poll, Ted Cruz has a 15-point net negative rating amongst men. Bad!
- Hispanics: According to an Economist/YouGov poll, 50% of Hispanic voters have an unfavorable view of Cruz. Hard to be worse than Trump on this one!
- Millennials: According to Economist/YouGov poll, 57% of people under 30 years old have an unfavorable view of Cruz. Bad!
- Independents: According to Economist/YouGov poll, 59% of independents have unfavorable views of Cruz. Bad!
That is all in addition to NRCC internal polling conducted earlier this year showing that while Donald Trump would cause great harm to House Republicans, Cruz and his ultra-conservative views are even worse for down-ballot Republicans’ reelection prospects.
“As Donald Trump and Ted Cruz’s popularity continues to nose-dive, House Republicans are faced with the nightmarish scenario of running with either one of these wildly unpopular candidates in November. There is no good Wisconsin primary outcome for Republicans in a wide range of Congressional districts: Trump and Cruz’s rock bottom ratings across key groups of voters will be an anchor around their necks in November,” said Meredith Kelly of the DCCC.