TO: Interested Parties
FROM: DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department
DATE: June 1, 2018
RE: Lizzie Fletcher Within 2 Points in TX-07
TX-07 GENERAL ELECTION IS STATISTICALLY TIED
In a May DCCC Analytics survey of likely 2018 general election voters, Democratic candidate Lizzie Pannill Fletcher comes within 2 points of long-term incumbent Congressman John Culberson (45% to 47%). Fletcher has distinct advantages among key constituencies, leading Congressman Culberson by 8 points among women (50% to 42%), 20 points among modeled independents (52% to 32%), and by 28 points among voters under 50 (57% to 29%).
The generic vote is a further proof point that this district is in play. A generic Democrat is within striking distance of a generic Republican—46% to 47%.
VOTERS REJECT TRUMP AND CULBERSON
Congressman Culberson has a net-negative favorability (-7 pts), with only 32% of voters having a favorable view to 39% who have an unfavorable view. Congressman Culberson’s net-negative is in stark contrast to Fletcher’s 14-point net-positive favorability, a 2-to-1 ratio (30% to 16%).
Similarly, voters in TX-07 are dissatisfied with Congressman Culberson’s work, just 35% of voters approve of his job performance while 39% disapprove, a 4-point net-negative rating.
Meanwhile, Trump remains underwater in a district he lost by 1.4 points in 2016. 50% of voters disapprove of his job performance while just 42% approve.
Texas’s 7th congressional district includes parts of Houston and its surrounding suburbs and is contained entirely within Harris County. The district is largely suburban (58.1%) and urban (38.5%) with a small rural population (3.4%). The Citizen Voting Age Population is 10.6% African American, 15.6% Hispanic/Latinx, and 7.6% Asian American and Pacific Islander. Secretary Clinton (50.7%) won this district in 2016 while President Obama lost in both 2012 (39.2%) and 2008 (40.8%). The latest DPI is 44.1%.
These results are based on a DCCC survey of 404 likely November 2018 general election voters in Texas’s Seventh Congressional district, conducted May 23-31, 2018. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and this poll was conducted through a standard blend of live cell phone and automated calls. The margin of error is +/- 4.9%.