News · Press Release

Meet the most vulnerable incumbent in Congress

Roll Call has updated its list of the 10 most vulnerable incumbents in the country and it’s no surprise that after a series of unpopular votes, scandals, outbursts, lackluster fundraising and polling that Iowa Republican Rep. Rod Blum takes the #1 spot.

“It takes a lot for Republicans and Democrats to agree on anything these days, but all signs point to Rod Blum being the most vulnerable incumbent in Congress,” said DCCC Spokeswoman Rachel Irwin. “Over the past year, Blum has voted to make it harder for hardworking Iowans to get ahead, while being exposed for his role in a shady internet company that puts the health and safety of his constituents at risk. That won’t cut it in Eastern Iowa, where labor-backed candidate Abby Finkenauer is running a strong campaign to be a champion for working families like her own.”

Six Months Out: The 10 Most Vulnerable House Incumbents | Roll Call

With the House GOP on defense in a difficult national environment, the 10 most vulnerable incumbents six months out from Election Day are all Republicans.

Republicans have pickup opportunities in November, but this is a ranking of the incumbents most likely to lose, not of seats most likely to flip — so there are no open seats on the list.

The biggest change from when we last compiled the list, a year out from Election Day? The most vulnerable member, California Rep. Darrell Issa, is retiring, sliding Iowa Rep. Rod Blum into the top spot. Blum was near the top of the list for most of 2016 — and then he won. But both Republicans and Democrats agree he’s in trouble this year.


Blum’s district is the type of seat Democrats want back in their column. (Voters here backed Trump, but Obama carried it twice by double digits). Democrats think they have the right candidate. State Rep. Abby Finkenauer still has to win the primary, but she is already up on TV with an ad featuring her dad, a retired pipe fitter. Finkenauer outraised Blum in the first quarter of the year by $180,000, but the incumbent still has a cash on hand advantage. Blum could also be dogged by a report that he violated House Ethics rules. He did not disclose that he owned a marketing company, The Associated Press reported. Blum said it was an “administrative oversight.”

Please make sure that the form field below is filled out correctly before submitting.