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TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
DATE: July 26, 2026
RE: 100 Days Out
With just over 100 days to go until Election Day, Democrats remain poised to win back the Majority as Republicans head into the August District Work period already buckling under the pressure as campaign season begins in earnest. From the start of the 2026 cycle, the DCCC has purposefully and methodically expanded the House battlefield, targeting districts Vice President Harris won that are still represented by a Republican to districts that President Trump won by double-digits – all while shoring up Frontliners for their own reelections. No matter if the district is suburban, rural, or redistricted, we are decidedly on offense in an election cycle that is defined by voter outrage at spiraling costs and the Iran war spiraling out of control, disappointment with the Republicans in charge, and a resonate message and enthusiasm among Democrats to turn out and vote in November.
The Proof Points:
Battleground Generic Trending Democrats’ Way
As the cycle has progressed and Democrats have highlighted Republicans’ broken promises, coupled with our own proactive agenda to address the issues voters face every day, we have seen the generic ballot across the DCCC’s battleground move in our direction. As a reminder, the DCCC battlefield – which currently consists of 72 districts, 26 Frontline, 25 Red to Blue and an additional 21 Districts in Play – is majority Trump-won districts. In fact, 56 of the 72 districts are ones that President Trump carried in 2024. This highlights the challenging but fertile terrain on which we are fighting to regain the majority. The expansive offensive battlefield also reflects how much the public has soured on Republican rule, with Democrats more trusted than Republicans to handle the economy, inflation, health care and even immigration.
- June/July 2025: R+2
- August 2025: R+1
- October 2025: D+4
- December 2025: D+2
- January/February 2026: D+5
- May 2026: D+8
This generic vote collapse is stretching Republicans’ gerrymanders to the breaking point as candidates like Johnny Garcia in TX-35 and Pia Dandiya in FL-22 capture momentum. Abysmal recruitment has further deepened their woes with Jay Feely in AZ-01 suggesting at his primary victory party last week that schools should not teach students about slavery, dangerous Marty O’Donnell in NV-03 giving a platform to neo-Nazi sympathizers, and failed candidates like Kevin Lincoln (CA-13), Mike LiPetri (NY-03), Laurie Buckhout (NC-01), and Derek Merrin (OH-09) who all managed to underperform Trump last cycle back to see how they do facing headwinds this cycle.
Strong Recruits – Including in Tough Districts
100 days out, we are seeing strong recruits make these districts increasingly competitive. These candidates – firefighters, teachers, business leaders, veterans, doctors, faith leaders, and farmers – provide a clear contrast to their Republican opponents’ failures on costs and corruption. They have a proven ability to cut through partisan politics and win over voters of all persuasions in these swing districts because they are known in their communities, and are speaking to the issues that matter and have lived them firsthand. Don’t just take our word for it: district-level polling is already bearing this out.
- In AZ-06, retired Marine Corps Drill Instructor and single mom Jo Mendoza is leading says-the-right-thing-but-votes-the-wrong-way Juan Ciscomani by 3 points.
- In FL-07, U.S. Navy vet and former NASA Chief of Staff Bale Dalton, leads scandal-prone and ethics-ridden Republican Cory Mills by 2 points.
- In IA-02, chaplain and public school mom Lindsay James is leading ultimate party insider and lobbyist Joe Mitchell by 3 points.
- In NC-11, farmer and small business owner Jamie Ager edges out (also) ethics-ridden and MIA congressman Chuck Edwards by 1 point.
- In NY-17, national security expert and Army combat veteran Cait Conley is beating do-anything-to-be-in-front-of-a-camera Mike Lawler by a whopping six points.
- In PA-08, Scranton Mayor Paige (Against the Machine) Cognetti is beating D.C.-insider and stock trading expert Rob Bresnahan by 1 point.
- In PA-10, former TV news anchor Janelle Stelson is beating former head of the Freedom Caucus extremist Scott Perry by 6 points.
Messaging, Money, Momentum
With only 100 days to go, the message environment remains on Democrats’ side. Republicans have made it clear they couldn’t care less that voters feel like they’re drowning in this economy. Take it from the leader of their party, President Trump, who has repeatedly said “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation,” “I love the inflation,” and that affordability is a “con job.” Through it all, vulnerable Republicans have remained by his side. In fact, they’ve continued to pass legislation that causes further harm to Americans, whether it’s the Big, Ugly Bill that raised health care and utility costs, endorsed his reckless tariffs that are making groceries more expensive and hurting small businesses and farms across the country, or fund his war of choice that is raising prices at the gas pump.
These advantages are borne out in candidate fundraising totals and voter enthusiasm. In the second quarter, House Democrats, and candidates, continued to have incredible grassroots fundraising success: Frontliners have nearly five times more cash on hand than their GOP challengers and 20 of the DCCC’s Red to Blue candidates outraised their Republican opponents, with an average of $1.3 million raised. When it comes to voter enthusiasm, a recent FOX News poll shows that by an 11% margin, Democrats are more motivated than Republicans to vote in November’s midterms. Democratic turnout in primaries this year has exceeded Republican turnout by 4 million voters. According to CNN, “the party with the edge has gone on to win the House every time since 2006.”
Bottom Line: Republicans already know they’ve lost the midterms. That’s why they’ve given up on legislating this year and are doing everything they can to try and cheat their way to victory, whether it’s upending decades of campaign finance law, gerrymandering districts to draw out Democrats and deny voters representation, or President Trump signing countless executive orders attempting to make voting harder, Democrats maintain the edge when it comes to winning back the House. Democrats will continue to highlight the authenticity and locally-focused nature of our candidates and stay grounded in messaging that centers around the cost of living, and we will retake the majority in November.
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