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To: Interested Parties
From: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
Date: November 7, 2025
Subject: A BLUE WAVE IS BUILDING: OFF-YEAR ELECTIONS SIGNAL DEMOCRATS ARE PRIMED TO TAKE BACK THE HOUSE IN 2026
Across the map, voters made it clear Tuesday night that they’re fed up with the Republican agenda that is driving up costs, and are ready to elect a House Democratic majority committed to affordability and protecting the programs working families rely on. In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger flipped the governor’s mansion in an historic win. In New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill secured a double-digit victory. In Pennsylvania, Democrats swept key contests—from county executives to state Supreme Court races—and, in California, voters approved Proposition 50 to redraw their congressional map to counteract Republicans’ unprecedented mid-decade national gerrymandering scheme.
The results prove what the DCCC has been saying all year: voters are ready to deliver Democrats the majority in an election year that’s shaping up to be a lot more like 2018 where voters repudiated a Republican-controlled government in favor of Democrats’ forward looking vision for the country.
TOP ELECTION 2025 TAKEAWAYS:
It’s All About Costs:
- Voters are overwhelmed by rising prices, and they know Republicans made it worse with chaotic tariffs and attacks on Medicaid and the ACA so that they can give billionaires a tax break.
- Democrats’ consistent message on lowering costs – whether it’s for health care, groceries, or utilities – drove decisive wins in every election.
- DCCC battleground polling confirms that addressing affordability is the top priority for voters, with health care and groceries topping the list.
Candidate Quality Matters:
- Democrats are running credible candidates who fit their districts, including veterans, doctors and educators, owners who are already building strong campaigns for 2026.
- Governors-elect Spanberger and Sherrill, both former Red to Blue and Frontline members who were first elected in 2018, proved that disciplined campaigns can overperform national expectations.
Latino voters are souring on Republicans and responding favorably to Democrats’ focus on affordability:
- In New Jersey, Sherrill’s success with Hispanic voters showed the power of direct outreach and Spanish-language messaging tied to affordability:
- In New Jersey’s most Hispanic county (Hudson), Sherrill overperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by 21.6 points, the largest overperformance in any New Jersey county.
- Hispanic communities in Virginia reflected the same pattern with Spanberger’s biggest overperformance coming in Manassas Park, Virginia (the most Hispanic locality in the commonwealth), where she outperformed Harris with over 21 points.
- Republicans’ focus on slashing Medicaid, raising health care costs, ending SNAP benefits, giving tax breaks to billionaires, and defending Trump’s trade chaos has shattered trust among Latino voters.
Voters Reject Republican Attempts To Rig The System:
- With the massive victory in California on Prop 50, voters sent a strong message that they will not stand by while Republicans try to rig the 2026 election.
- Republicans know they can’t win on the issues, and we won’t let them cheat their way to a win either.
- These results – along with the landslide victories for Democrats at every level of government across the country – should make Republicans think twice about any future attempts to gerrymander their way into power.
VIRGINIA
Abigail Spanberger carried all three of Virginia’s DCCC battleground districts (VA-01, VA-02, VA-07). Her campaign centered on lowering costs, protecting federal workers, and putting service ahead of politics — a message that resonated in both rural parts of the state and bellweathers like Loudoun County where she overperformed Harris by +12 points. Democrats not only won the governor’s race but also expanded their Virginia House of Delegates to at least 64 seats, flipping a dozen GOP-held districts — a signal that “Dems should be considered favorites for House control in ’26.”
VA-01, Rob Wittman (R): In VA-01, Spanberger earned 50.6% of the two-way vote share, a 6 point improvement from Harris’ performance in 2024. Marking a significant gain with rural voters, Spanberger overperformed in the rural parts of the district (Westmoreland, King and Queen, Richmond, and Essex counties). Additionally, both Henrico and Chesterfield counties continued their leftward trend.
VA-02, Jen Kiggans (R): Spanberger won VA-02 after Harris lost it in 2024, and also carried Virginia Beach by 11 points, an 8 point overperformance that helped Democrats flip HD-89. Trump’s shutdown and tariffs, which hit military families and coastal businesses hard, were defining issues and Republicans paid the price.
NEW JERSEY
Mikie Sherrill’s victory in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race was decisive, winning by 13 points because of her focus on affordability. Voters who named the economy as their top issue broke decisively for Sherrill, who carried both of the state’s competitive congressional districts (NJ-07, NJ-09) and delivered Democrats their third straight win for governor — a first in more than 60 years.
NJ-07, Tom Kean Jr. (R): In the counties comprising NJ-07, Sherrill earned 54.4% of the vote share, overperforming Harris by 4.8 points. Republican support collapsed in traditional GOP strongholds like Hunterdon County, where suburban and college-educated voters swung sharply toward Democrats.
NJ-09, Nellie Pou (D): The shift in the counties comprising NJ-09 was even more dramatic, with a 12.9 point overperformance, powered in large part by Latino voters shifting back towards Democrats. In 2024, Trump carried Passaic County with 52 percent of the vote, but Tuesday night Sherrill carried the county by 15 points. New Jersey’s second-most Hispanic county, saw the second-largest shift left from 2024, with an 18 point overperformance of the Harris margin.
PENNSYLVANIA
Democrats swept key local races across Pennsylvania and voters chose to retain all 3 democratic leaning Justices of the Supreme Court. The results from Tuesday’s Supreme Court races represent an overperformance from Democratic vote share in both 2023 and 2021 in key counties across the DCCC’s four competitive congressional districts.
PA-01, Brian Fitzpatrick (R): In Bucks County, Democrats achieved an historic sweep in local races across the district, winning four Court of Common Pleas seats, all five row offices, flipping the sheriff’s office, and electing the first Democratic District Attorney in more than 150 years. These results cement Bucks as one of the clearest indicators that the tide is finally turning against Fitzpatrick in 2026.
PA-07, Ryan Mackenzie (R): In County Executive races in Lehigh and Northampton Counties, Democrats won their races by double-digit margins, overperforming the previous Democratic performance by 17.5 and 6.4 points respectively. Democrats also won every county council seat in Northampton and flipped municipal offices in Bethlehem and South Whitehall.
PA-08, Rob Bresnahan (R): In Luzerne County, a recent Trump stronghold, Democrats regained control of the County Council and swept Scranton and Lackawanna County row offices.
PA-10, Scott Perry (R): In Cumberland County, “a historically GOP locale outside of Harrisburg,” Democrats won three of four countywide offices. This was the first time a Democrat has won a Cumberland County judgeship by election since 1955.
CALIFORNIA
Voters in California approved Proposition 50 by a 28-point margin (75% reporting), paving the way for a new congressional map that strengthens Democratic incumbents and adds up to five potential pickup opportunities. The measure’s victory made clear that voters refuse to sit back and watch while Republicans in D.C. work to right the 2026 elections
Voters across the political spectrum turned out to make their voice heard with a ‘Yes’ vote. For example, in Riverside County, a county Trump won by 1.2 points in 2024, voters voted ‘Yes’ with a 12.4-point margin. A portion of Riverside County makes up the northern part of the newly created CA-48, one of the Democrats’ pick-up opportunities under the new lines.
PATH TO VICTORY
In the 2017 off-year elections, voters sent a stark warning to Republicans that they wanted a check on the Trump administration. In 2018, voters turned out in droves because they were excited about Democrats’ vision for the country and we flipped the House.
The 2025 off-year elections mark the beginning of another blue wave. Tuesday’s elections saw record voter turnout in a non-presidential year. Democrats are entering 2026 with momentum and a clear message that is resonating with voters. The contrast is unmistakable: Democrats are focused on affordability and working families while Republicans are focused on creating chaos. |
