To: Interested Parties
From: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
Date: March 18, 2026
Subject: DEMOCRATIC OVERPERFORMANCE IN TRUMP-WON TERRITORY SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDS THE MAP IN 2026
Democrats are decidedly on offense and are on track to retake the House Majority this November. The events of 2025 are proof positive of this. Our DCCC’s 2026 offensive strategy is bolstered by a sustained, statistically significant overperformance trend across the 2025/2026 special election cycle. In congressional special elections, Democrats have overperformed by an average of 17 points – proving that our strategy of going on offense deep into Trump-won districts is the right one.
This has made it possible for Democrats to aggressively expand our target map into what was once considered “Safe Republican” territory, specifically targeting incumbents who underperformed Trump at the top of the ticket.
2026 BATTLEGROUND EXPANSION
The DCCC started the 2026 cycle on offense with an offensive, District In Play (DIP) list that was already larger than our pick-up opportunities at the start of the 2024 cycle. Thanks to a favorable environment and strong candidate recruitment, that list has now expanded to 44 districts. This aggressive expansion of our offensive targets proves what the DCCC has been saying all year: voters are ready to deliver Democrats the majority.
- Current DCCC battleground (68 districts)
- Frontline: 24 districts
- Red to Blue: 12 districts
- Districts in Play: 32 additional districts
- Trump-won districts (52 districts)
- Frontline: 12 districts
- Red to Blue: 12 districts
- Districts in Play: 28 districts
Furthermore, our Frontliners know what it takes to win and overperformed in 2024 because they were independent-minded, authentic candidates that spoke directly to the concerns and issues that mattered locally.
SPECIAL ELECTION MARGINS (2025-2026)
A key factor for expanding the map is the consistent “Blue Wave” momentum seen in post-2024 special elections.
- Current total 2025/2026 special election margin overperformance: 13.1 points
- Congressional 2025/2026 special election margin overperformance: 17.1 points
Notably, the average overperformance leading up to the 2018 midterms was only 10.6 points.
November 2025 Gubernatorial Overperformance (By Congressional District)
Data from the November 2025 gubernatorial elections also shows Democrats significantly overperforming in key battleground districts:
- NJ-07: 3.1 points
- NJ-09: 20.6 points
- VA-01: 7.3 points
- VA-02: 7.8 points
- VA-07: 12.6 points
REPUBLICANS WHO UNDERPERFORMED TRUMP IN 2024
Recent elections show that Americans want leaders who will represent their interests, fight for them, and tackle rising costs. Unfortunately for Republicans, they’re failing to deliver and, as a result, they underperformed Trump’s margins in 2024.
Red to Blue
- AZ-02, Eli Crane: -6.0 point margin underperformance
- IA-01, Mariannette Miller-Meeks: -8.2 point margin underperformance
- IA-03, Zach Nunn: -0.6 point margin underperformance
- PA-08, Rob Bresnahan: -6.9 point margin underperformance
- PA-10, Scott Perry: -4.0 point margin underperformance
- WI-03, Derrick Van Orden: -4.7 point margin underperformance
Districts in Play
- AK-01, Nick Begich: -10.7 point margin underperformance
- CO-08, Gabe Evans: -1.1 point margin underperformance
- FL-13, Anna Paulina Luna: -2.2 point margin underperformance
- PA-07, Ryan Mackenzie: -2.2 point margin underperformance
- TX-15, Monica De La Cruz: -4.6 point margin underperformance
THE BOTTOM LINE
The data is clear: while there are multiple paths to take back the House majority, Democrats have significantly increased their odds thanks to our ability to win in Trump-won territory. The 17.1-point total overperformance in Congressional special elections in 2025 and 2026 demonstrates that a Democratic majority is already in motion. With 40 Trump-won Red to Blue/DIP districts squarely in our sights, the DCCC is maintaining a relentless offensive posture heading into the midterm elections.
|
