To: Interested Parties From: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Date: July 23, 2024 Subject: House Democrats Remain Well-Positioned to Win Back the Majority
Despite a volatile month of ever-evolving political news, House Democrats remain well-positioned to win back the majority this fall. Thanks to our continued fundraising advantage, the individual strengths of our Frontliners and Red to Blue challengers, and a stark contrast between the forward-looking agenda of House Democrats and MAGA extremism, the DCCC is confident that we will retake the Majority and get the House back to work For the People.
Steadily Increasing Fundraising and Cash-on-Hand Advantage for Democrats Across the Battlefield
Both Democratic Frontliners and challengers outraised their Republican opponents by an average of more than $440,000 in the most recent quarter.
In this same quarter, our Frontline Democrats, on average, raised $1,040,000 – which is roughly $600,000 more than their Republican challengers raised. These same Democratic Frontliners have an average of more than $2.6 million cash-on-hand, which is an average of nearly five times more than their Republican opponents. This cash-on-hand advantage will be imperative as communication begins in earnest. National House Republican IEs are seeing these fundraising disparities and, for the first time in recent cycles, haven’t placed reservations in media markets such as Boston, Chicago, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Manchester, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh, or Seattle – despite insisting they’re going on offense.
Democratic challengers are also winning the cash race against vulnerable House Republican incumbents. Candidates on the DCCC’s Red to Blue program outraised their Republican opponent by an average of more than $400,000 in Q2. In many races – Kirsten Engel in AZ-06, George Whitesides in CA-27, Will Rollins in CA-41, Christina Bohannan in IA-01, Tony Vargas in NE-02, Laura Gillen in NY-04, Mondaire Jones in NY-17, Josh Riley in NY-19, and Janelle Stelson in PA-10 – these Red to Blue candidates have already overtaken their Republican opponents in cash-on-hand.
Additionally, the DCCC continues to outraise the NRCC – raising $7 million more in Q2 and having more than $17.1 million cash on hand as of the last filing.
Democratic House Candidates Continue to Overperform
In a June 2024 DCCC battleground poll, our pollsters found Democrats leading the generic ballot by one point. Once candidates were named in Frontline and Red to Blue districts, this advantage grew to three points. Specifically, our Frontliners now lead their named Republican opponents by +8 points. And before most of our Red to Blue candidates have begun making their case to the electorate in paid communications, they are within the margin of error.
Additionally, in district-specific polling in Frontline districts from early May to mid-July, the Democratic incumbent is leading by an average of +8 percentage points and has an average net +10 favorability rating. In Red to Blue races, Democratic candidates are leading or statistically tied with their Republican opponents in nearly all of the district-specific polls the DCCC has received or conducted, and have an average of +7 favorability. In the 19 district-specific polls conducted after the June 27th debate, Frontliners and Red to Blue candidates remained resilient, with no poll showing atrophy in their support from prior instruments.
We anticipate this overperformance to continue throughout the rest of the election. We also anticipate renewed enthusiasm from Democratic and independent voters, voters of color, and younger voters (18-39) – a key driver for Democratic turnout up and down the ballot, which remains key to our success in November.
The Message Hasn’t Changed Authentic Candidates, Local Races
Our Frontliners and Democratic challengers will win this November because of their unique strengths and their dedication to delivering for their local communities, coupled with their Republican opponents’ MAGA extremism that voters continue to reject time after time. We know that candidate quality matters in down ballot races. Democrats run common sense, independent-minded candidates who reflect the diversity of our nation and are focused on kitchen table issues. For House Democrats, differing viewpoints and candid conversations are a welcome way to push towards solutions. Meanwhile House Republicans run extremists who only care about acting like and obeying Trump – peddling conspiracy theories, taking away reproductive freedom, and pushing tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy. That fundamental truth has not changed.
MAGA Extremism and Project 2025
The current Republican Majority has ushered in unprecedented chaos and dysfunction, empowering the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Jim Jordan, and blindly following along with an extreme agenda that would be disastrous for middle class families. And a Republican Majority with a Trump presidency? Enter Project 2025, which would give Trump nearly unchecked powers if he were to win a second term, aided and abetted by House Republicans. If this agenda were put into practice, Republicans would no doubt end abortion rights, raise costs for hardworking families, and gut Medicare and threaten Social Security. Given these threats, it’s more important than ever that we have a Democratic Majority in the House to push back against far-right attempts to undermine our democracy.
