MEMO: PRIMARY APPEAL: SURGING DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT AND LACK OF REPUBLICAN ENTHUSIASM SHATTERS NRCC’S “MAGA MAJORITY” FANTASY

To: Interested Parties
From: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
Date: August 25, 2026
Subject: PRIMARY APPEAL: SURGING DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT AND LACK OF REPUBLICAN ENTHUSIASM SHATTERS NRCC’S “MAGA MAJORITY” FANTASY

Primary season is over on our battlefield and voter participation across the country confirms Democrats are on offense heading into November. In key states with battleground districts, Democratic primary turnout surged, beating historical baselines. Meanwhile, the numbers indicate that Republicans have an enthusiasm problem with their MAGA base—shattering the NRCC’s comical thesis that Donald Trump could single-handedly rescue the House majority. In top-of-the-ticket contested primaries in House battleground states, Democratic voter participation outpaced Republican turnout by over 3.5 million votes.

DEMOCRATS HAVE MESSAGE, MOMENTUM, AND MOBILIZATION ON OUR SIDE

In a number of the nation’s most closely-watched open seat battleground districts, Democratic voter turnout outpaced Republican turnout: 

• CA-48: 100,621 Democratic ballots | 86,840 Republican ballots (+13,781 D)
• IA-02: 47,980 Democratic ballots | 39,802 Republican ballots (+8,178 D)
• KY-06: 64,866 Democratic ballots | 64,096 Republican ballots (+770 D)
• MI-10: 99,950 Democratic ballots | 62,967 Republican ballots (+36,983 D)
• NE-02: 58,004 Democratic ballots | 39,689 Republican ballots (+18,315 D)
• TX-35: 54,856 Democratic ballots | 40,387 Republican ballots (+14,469 D)
• TX-23: 59,222 Democratic ballots | 55,263 Republican ballots (+3,959 D)

THE NRCC’S “MAGA MAJORITY” STRATEGY IS UNRAVELING 

While Democrats mobilize, the Republican base is disengaged, demoralized, and deeply fractured. The NRCC’s delusional strategy to protect their so-called “MAGA Majority” relies entirely on tying their vulnerable incumbents and challengers to Donald Trump’s record — someone who has the lowest approval rating of any president at this point in his second term since Richard Nixon. 

Unsurprisingly, primary turnout data has shown that strategy is fundamentally broken:

• Recent high-profile Trump-backed candidates have suffered outright primary losses.
• The MAGA base is fatigued and turning on House Republicans and the President. Republican voters have no interest in defending a House majority that refuses to address the three key issues defining this election: costs, care, and corruption.