To: Interested Parties
From: Evan Lukaske, DCCC regional press secretary
Date: June 25, 2018
Re: Rose in Excellent Position to Beat Donovan or Grimm…or Both
Democrats are in better position to flip New York’s 11th Congressional District than any time in the past decade, and there is one reason: Max Rose. With his record of service and his fundraising prowess, Max is the clear front-runner in the Democratic primary field, and is in an excellent position to beat either Congressman Dan Donovan or former Congressman Michael Grimm in the general election.
Max’s strong military background cuts across party lines in this blue-collar district. A decorated combat veteran, Max earned a Purple Heart and Bronze Star in Afghanistan, and currently serves as an infantry company commander in the National Guard. Even a Republican strategist admitted, “I think the moderate, military-guy profile works.” Importantly, Max has lived on Staten Island for years, negating an issue that has dogged past Democratic candidates. National Journal described him as a “fierce opponent” whose “message as an independent-minded veteran echoes that of Rep. Conor Lamb…”
Max has outraised both Republicans and will start the general with a significant lead in campaign funds. In just over a year of campaigning, Max has raised more than $1.6 million, made even more impressive by the fact that he’s outraised incumbent Dan Donovan, who had an 8-month head start. In the most recent filing, Max easily led the field in cash on hand with more than $1 million, compared to just over $500,000 for Donovan and $100,000 for Grimm.
Notably, the filing occurred weeks before the primary. Donovan and Grimm have since spent hundreds of thousands of dollars attacking each other through TV, radio, mail, and digital. Unlike Max, who faces little opposition in the Democratic primary and thus has been able to conserve resources, Donovan and Grimm will likely spend nearly all of their campaign funds to win their primary. Running in the most expensive media market in the country, Max’s cash advantage cannot be overstated.
The nasty GOP primary will leave both Donovan and Grimm severely damaged for the general. For months, the Republicans have torn each other apart in this swing district, with Grimm accurately calling Donovan a spineless politician and Donovan highlighting Grimm’s felony tax fraud conviction as the worst of his countless ethical lapses.
Donovan, in the process, has destroyed his own reputation in an effort to win the primary. Grimm himself noted, “Now that I’ve thrown my hat in the ring, he’s moving to his right.” Donovan has touted his efforts to repeal health care, came out in support of keeping children in cages and separating families, publicly proclaimed his loyalty to Trump to Steve Bannon, wrote a law to require the Post Office to hang portraits of the president and vice president in their facilities, and asked President Trump to pardon Grimm, an action observers speculated may have been designed to avoid a primary.
There is also a possibility that both Donovan and Grimm make the general election. Grimm successfully filed petitions for an opportunity-to-ballot for the Conservative Party, which will allow Conservative voters to write him in on their ballot, and seems confident of a win. Were Grimm to win the Conservative nomination and Donovan to win the Republican nomination, or vice versa, voters would head to the polls in November with Max, Grimm, and Donovan on the ballot.
And while a split ballot would be a nightmare scenario for Republicans, make no mistake—Max Rose has the profile and campaign to beat either Grimm or Donovan this fall.