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MEMO: Texas Republicans’ Lost Year: Filing Deadline Marks New Phase of DCCC:Texas’ Offensive Drive

MEMORANDUM 

To: Interested Parties 

From: Michael Beckendorf, DCCC Southern Regional Political Director 

Date: December 9, 2019 

Subject: Texas Republicans’ Lost Year: Filing Deadline Marks New Phase of DCCC:Texas’ Offensive Drive 

Today’s filing deadline marks the end of a tumultuous year for Texas Republicans defined by surprise retirements and salacious scandals. While Texas Republicans spent 2019 limping from crisis to crisis, exposing a shockingly weak party apparatus that hasn’t adapted to a changing Texas, the DCCC was on the ground early to invest in the Lone Star State and build upon the inspiring grassroots energy here. 

In races across Texas, the stages are set and Democrats are poised to continue driving deep into historically Republican territoryHere’s how we see the primary state of play in the Lone Star State.  

Democratic Incumbents Are Positioned Strongly While Washington Republicans Throw Their Weight in Primaries 

In the third quarter, Reps. Allred and Fletcher continued their fundraising dominance, raising more money than their Republican fields combined and both crossing the million-dollar mark in terms of total raised and cash on hand. 

TX-07: In the GOP Primary, Harris County’s Conservative Voice vs. The Washington Establishment’s Handpicked Candidate 

Virtually unknown to conservatives and Republican activists in Harris County, Washington Republicans have gone all-in for Wesley Hunt after George H.W. Bush grandson Pierce Bush brushed off GOP recruiting efforts in the 7th District. But even with all his help from Washington special interests, Hunt has failed to put away former Mayor of Bellaire Cindy Siegel who is better-known and better-liked by Harris County GOP faithfulalready boasts an impressive list of more than 360 endorsements, and is engaging with local press and showing up to GOP forums – unlike Hunt. 

For her part, Siegel is calling attention to an emerging scandal tied to Hunt’s employer as the U.S Army Corps of Engineers begins their investigation into whether Hunt’s company caused flooding in a suburban Houston community.   

Despite TX-07 rejecting Donald Trump in 2016, Hunt’s utterly undefined record is forcing him to work overtime to cozy up to Trump in a district that is primed to once again reject President Trump and Washington Republicans’ recklessness in 2020, just like it did in 2016 and 2018 

Heck, even former Congressman John Culberson was smart enough to know to keep a wide berth from Trump in TX-07. 

TX-32: Washington Republicans to Texas: “Anybody but Pete Sessions, Please” 

When 2018’s biggest loser, Pete “Congressman-1” Sessions, publicly mulled a quixotic comeback candidacy in the 32nd District, Republicans in Washington scrambled to quash it. To chase Sessions out the race, Washington Republicans put their thumb on the scale for unknown businesswoman Genevieve Collins – passing over top Trump supporters Tania Burgess and Floyd McLendon who are running strongly pro-Trump campaigns and drawing the GOP primary further to the right with each passing day.  

Meanwhile, Republicans had big recruiting misses in the form of Texas State Reps. Dan Branch and Morgan Meyer choosing to run for re-election to their Texas House seats, while Trump acolyte and xenophobic former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne opted to run for the seat left vacant by Rep. Kenny Marchant’s surprise retirement amid the summer Texodus. 

With Rep. Allred on the ticket and demonstrating a singular ability to win and keep this North Texas seat, TX-32 is primed to reject the president and Washington Republicans’ recklessness in 2020 – just like it did in 2016 and 2018. 

As Suburban Districts Shift Away from GOP, Republicans Sprint to Trump Playbook 

TX-10: McCaul Throws Out the Re-Elect Playbook, Auditions for a Trump Cabinet Post 

 Earlier this year, Congressman McCaul was so spooked by the Texodus that he spent a significant portion of the summer of 2019 insisting that – yes – he was actually running for re-election. Not only that, but that he was running hard: running digital ads on local issues to attempt to separate himself from a volatile national environment. 

 Turns out campaigning takes work and McCaul’s act took its toll, as his third-quarter fundraising report showed a staggering 63 percent burn rate and was missing $65,000 – all while a CNN profile exposed that McCaul’s campaign only scheduled one door-knocking event over a two week period… before canceling it.  

And rather than staying on message in his TX-10 district that voted for Beto O’Rourke in 2018McCaul complained to CNN about being passed over for DHS Secretary and openly signaled his interest being Trump’s Secretary of State. And amid the impeachment inquiry, McCaul changed course completely: transforming into a vocal Trump defender and literally writing House Republicans’ minority report to paper over President Trump’s abuses of power and attempts to put himself above the law. That’s one way to audition for a job. 

TX-21: Facing a Strong Democratic Challenge, Chip Roy Kicks Off 2020 by Dissing the GOP’s Texas “Strategy”  

After getting shellacked in the money race by Wendy Davis in her first quarter as a candidate, Congressman Roy decided it was time to end his flirtation with retirement and kick off his campaign by trashing the Republican Party for their lack of on-the-ground investment in Texas. 

It was a fitting start to a campaign that will dredge up plenty of Roy’s head-scratching political moves from his first year in office, from singlehandedly blocking a bipartisan disaster relief bill to voting for higher taxes on families of fallen veterans to voting against banning insider trading last week. Indeed, local press is already forecasting that “Chip Roy could have another close race.” 

TX-22: Emerging as the Nation’s Largest, Most Expensive and Messiest GOP Primary in one of America’s Most Diverse Districts 

Congressman Pete Olson’s shocking retirement was the first domino to fall, triggering a summer of TexodusIn his wake and with no clear replacement lined upWashington Republicans struck out in their ham-handed recruitment of former Houston baseball star Roger Clemens and failed to clear the field. 

The result? The nation’s largest GOP primary field – likely soon to become the largest, most expensive and messiest GOP primary in America – and is destined for a critically time-consuming and resource-draining May 26 runoff. 

So far, the GOP field is crawling over each other to race to the right and define themselves by their allegiance to Donald Trump and Washington Republicans’ reckless agenda. And in one of the nation’s fastest-diversifying districts, it’s safe to say the Texas GOP isn’t exactly rising to the occasion. 

TX-23: Will Hurd’s Endorsement is a Beltway Boon and Local Liability 

We told you in October that things were getting bleak for Texas Republicans in the 23rd District and that’s truer today than ever before. 

Iraq War veteran and San Antonio native Gina Ortiz Jones is running laps around the GOP field in terms of grassroots organization, political support and fundraising while every new paperwork “error” and illegal contribution refunded by Tony Gonzales – Hurd’s endorsed candidate – is a reminder of how fundamentally unprepared the GOP was for Hurd’s shock retirement.  

In the meantime, Congressman Hurd’s numerous swipes at President Trump haven’t sat well with the GOP party faithful and activists across TX-23. In a surprising turn of events, Hurd’s endorsement is turning into a local liability as much as it’s a D.C. beltway boon. Led by GOP firebrandRaul Reyes and Alma Arredondo-Lynch, the Republican field minus Gonzales regularly trashes Hurd on the stump. 

For Gonzales, a Hurd endorsement may look great to aeditorial board but is a virtual kiss of death in the rural conservative strongholds he must capture in order to win the Republican nomination. That’s a tough task for a guy who never even planned to run for this seat in the first place 

TX-24: Beth Van Duyne is Trump’s Top Woman in North Texas 

Faced with an open seat in a swingy district caused by Rep. Kenny Marchant’s retirement, Republicans have coalesced around top Trump acolyte Beth Van DuyneVan Duyne’s xenophobic record as Mayor of Irving was toxic enough to land her a feature on the Southern Poverty Law Center’s Hatewatch blog and a posh job in the Trump Administration. 

Her pro-Trump credentials are unimpeachableshe was one of the few big-city mayors to endorse his candidacy and proudly attended the president’s head-scratching October rally in Dallas. 

Van Duyne and Trump are inextricably intertwined, which doesn’t bode well in this fast-changing district that voted for Beto O’Rourke last year 

TX-31: Ahead of His GOP Primary, Warning Signs for Congressman Carter 

Just about as soon as filing opened, Congressman John Carter raced to the Texas Republican Party headquarters to be among the first to put his name on the Texas primary ballot while making sure everyone knew he was, in fact, running for re-election. 

Why? looming multi-candidate GOP primary to Carter’s right and a rash of retirement rumors spurred by his horrendous third-quarter finance report that set off alarm bells across Williamson and Bell Counties. 

Amid Texas Republicans’ Lost Year, Democrats Are Continuing a Steady Investment 

Since day one of the 2020 election cycle, the DCCC’s strategic investments have recognized the energy and opportunity in Texas. Less than 11 months from Election Day, DCCC investments have already had a clear impact in previously ruby-red Republican strongholds. The DCCC’s field organizing, digital advertising, and research efforts have contributed to three high-profile Texas retirements, setting up DCCC:Texas to play a major role in turning Texas’s homegrown energy into congressional wins in 2020. 

 Click here to read more about what the DCCC is doing on the ground in the Lone Star State. 

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