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To: Interested Parties
From: Julie Merz, Executive Director, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
Date: July 22, 2025
Subject: Texas Voters See Republicans’ Partisan Power Grab for What It Is – And Are Ready to Make Them Pay at the Ballot Box
As Texas Republicans blindly follow orders from their party bosses in DC and gavel in a special session to try and gerrymander their slim hold on power, new polling highlights just how much of a political risk these Republicans are undertaking. In a survey conducted on behalf of the DCCC and House Majority PAC by Texas-based polling firm, Z to A Research, likely 2026 voters across 22 congressional districts potentially impacted by redistricting, it’s clear Texas Republicans are poised to deliver a map that over promises and under delivers in a way many Dallas Cowboy fans will find familiar.
TEXAS VOTERS WANT FOCUS ON FLOOD RELIEF, NOT KOWTOWING TO DC INTERESTS
While 94% of respondents support funding flood warning systems and relief efforts in response to the July 4 storms in Central Texas, 54% of respondents think the Texas government is doing a ‘poor’ or ‘not so good’ job of responding to the flooding. Meanwhile, voters see Texas Republicans prioritizing a partisan power grab ahead of flood relief by a margin of 53% to 32%. Additionally, 63% of voters, including 41% of Republicans, agree that this partisan gerrymander is unnecessary. As the State Legislature cowers under order from the Trump White House, they need to know that voters are not on their side.
ANY GERRYMANDER EFFORT WILL ONLY INCREASE NUMBER OF VULNERABLE REPUBLICANS, IN BOTH PRIMARY AND GENERAL ELECTIONS
In an environment where Democrats are consistently overperforming in special elections across the country and with public opinion turning against the Republican trifecta, re-drawing the Texas map is a dangerous proposition for House Republicans. Between 2016 and 2018, competitive congressional districts in Texas moved 7 points in Democrats’ favor. Given the political winds and favorable environment we anticipate, similar to the first Trump midterms in 2018, we can expect a similar shift. Any new map Texas Republicans draw will almost certainly increase the number of competitive districts, thereby endangering more congressional Republican incumbents. It’s basic math.
Notably, following a message that highlights how Republicans are taking orders from DC and gerrymandering their congressional map rather than focusing on flood relief, vote choice for a named Republican drops 7 points (from -5 to -12). In fact, 62% of voters in these districts say the GOP’s prioritization of partisan gerrymandering will make them less likely to vote for Republican candidates for Congress. This rises to 67% of Independents and includes 21% of 2024 Trump voters. And in a direct contrast to the spin Republicans have been pushing all cycle, their support among Hispanic voters appears soft. Before any messaging, congressional Republicans are underwater with Hispanic voters in these districts by 22 points. This unpopularity falls to -34 points following the message laid out above.
Furthermore, by rigging the congressional map, incumbent Texas Republicans are also making themselves more vulnerable to primary challenges. Thanks to a diluted incumbency advantage, across all 22 congressional districts surveyed, in no hypothetical Republican primary matchup did a congressional Republican incumbent garner more than 50% of the vote among Republican voters.
Finally, we know that the unpopularity of Republicans’ Big, Ugly Bill has expanded our map nationwide due to voters’ disapproval of the law. This is no different in Texas, with 60% of voters saying the Big, Ugly Bill will make them less likely to vote for a Republican for Congress, including 71% of Independents.
BOTTOM LINE: Should Texas Republicans decide to prioritize partisan politics in the wake of tragic flooding, the DCCC stands ready to expand our offensive Districts in Play map.
Methodology
From July 16-20, Texas-based Z to A Research conducted a text-to-web survey of 2,449 likely 2026 voters in Texas across 22 congressional districts. The districts chosen represent four regions of Texas and 10 districts are represented by Democrats, while 12 districts are represented by Republicans. At least 100 interviews were conducted per district. The margin of error is 2%. Districts polled are listed by region below:
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