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Republicans are on track to hold the smallest House majority in over half a century
Initial analysis from the DCCC shows how House Democrats’ substantive, authentic, and locally-focused campaigns helped them outperform the top of the ticket among key demographics across the battlefield.
In counties that are fully encompassed in DCCC battleground districts, Frontline and Red to Blue candidates outran the top of the ticket “by an average of 2.4 percentage points… where fewer than 30 percent of registered voters have a college degree” and “by an average of 1.1 points in the counties inside battleground districts where majorities of registered voters are people of color.” Additionally, the DCCC’s analysis found that:
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In districts held by Frontliners, House Democrats overperformed the top of the ticket by an average of +2.7 points.
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In majority-Black districts, House Democrats overperformed the top of the ticket by an average of +1.4 points.
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In majority-Hispanic districts, House Democrats overperformed the top of the ticket by an average of +0.2 points.
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In majority-suburban districts, House Democrats overperformed Harris by an average of +2.1 points.
Read more from the Washington Post:
A preliminary analysis from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found its candidates did better than Vice President Kamala Harris among Hispanic, Black and non-college-educated voters in counties fully within battleground districts.
President-elect Donald Trump proved strong among voters without a college degree, winning 56 percent of them in this election, according to exit polling. The DCCC analysis found that its candidates outran Harris by an average of 2.4 percentage points across battleground-district counties where fewer than 30 percent of registered voters have a college degree.
The candidates outran Harris by an average of 1.1 points in the counties inside battleground districts where majorities of registered voters are people of color.
Some of the overperformance is evident from the overall results. In Texas’s 34th Congressional District, a heavily Hispanic district in South Texas, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) carried Cameron County by a narrow margin, while Harris lost it by six percentage points.
“House Democrats held Republicans to a slim majority this election by overperforming with key demographics in virtually every corner of the country,” the DCCC chairwoman, Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Washington), said in a statement, praising the quality of campaigns.
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