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LA Times: “McCarthy’s deep understanding of California politics has been replaced by a man who built his career in the religious right and represents a deeply conservative Deep South district in northern Louisiana. That’s not good news for vulnerable California Republicans.”
This weekend, the Los Angeles Times released a report covering Kevin McCarthy’s retirement from the House — and the disastrous implications it carries for his fellow right-wing California representatives.
McCarthy’s replacement in Speaker Mike Johnson couldn’t be more different from the Bakersfield representative. Johnson sorely lacks the same level of fundraising and campaigning acumen, and proudly touts his alignment with the far-right — calling America “beyond redemption” with a “depraved culture” in recent fundraising emails.
For the many California Republicans now attempting to stay afloat without McCarthy’s dedicated support, this retirement could spell trouble for their electoral ambitions in 2024.
DCCC Spokesperson Dan Gottlieb:
“Cash-Cow Kevin is calling it quits, leaving California’s vulnerable Republican incumbents in worse shape than ever. While Duarte, Valadao, Garcia, Calvert, and Steel pander to their far-right fringes to raise funds and stay afloat, we’ll be reminding Californians whose interests they’re actually serving in Congress.”
The Los Angeles Times: California holds the key to GOP power in the House. McCarthy’s retirement makes everything harder
Cameron Joseph | December 9, 2023
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With Kevin McCarthy heading for the exits, his Republican colleagues are bracing for a falloff in campaign support and loss of granular institutional knowledge that could leave them at a disadvantage heading into next fall’s elections.
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The fight for control of the closely divided House will likely be decided in California, the ex-speaker’s home state. Five of the state’s 12 Republicans — Young Kim of Anaheim Hills, David Valadao of Hanford, Mike Garcia of Santa Clarita, Michelle Steel of Seal Beach and John Duarte of Modesto — hold districts President Biden won in 2020. A sixth Golden State Republican, Rep. Ken Calvert of Corona, also faces a competitive race.
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But McCarthy’s announcement that he’ll leave Congress at the end of the year means the GOP will be without the man who convinced many of them to run for office in the first place — not to mention one of the most prolific fundraisers in party history. That complicates Republicans’ path to maintaining their historically narrow majority. His replacement, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), is a neophyte at political leadership with a long history of hard-line social conservative stances that might not play well in the districts that will determine House control.
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“It’s terrible. There’s nothing good about losing McCarthy,” Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) told The Times.
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McCarthy’s greatest strength as a politician has been his political capability. He’s a campaign animal, more interested in and adept at recruiting candidates and raising money than crafting policy.
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He played a key role in building out the House GOP’s super PAC efforts over the past decade-plus beginning in 2010, has deep ties to megadonors and K Street lobbyists, and his close relationships with swing-district lawmakers — many of whom he personally recruited to run for office — helped propel him to the speakership.
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Now, he’s on the way out. And Johnson, his replacement, is learning on the fly what it means to be in charge of the party’s campaign efforts.
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Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), a close McCarthy ally, said he was worried about the steep learning curve his home-state colleague faces as he settles into the speakership, as well as the loss of connections and institutional knowledge that are leaving with McCarthy.
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Johnson has never spent much time fundraising — he hails from a safe seat and hasn’t done much campaigning for others in past years. Before he became speaker, Johnson had raised just over $5 million in his six-plus years in Congress. He’d brought in just over a half-million dollars in the first three quarters of 2023, compared to $15 million for McCarthy, who helped the National Republican Congressional Committee raise more than $40 million last cycle alone.
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Republican lawmakers and campaign aides say Johnson is working hard to introduce himself to key donors and getting help from McCarthy in his circle — but concede that he starts at a disadvantage.
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“Look, there’s going to be less money, I’m sure. How much, I don’t know,” Crenshaw said.
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On top of that, McCarthy comes from California and knows the Golden State well. His exit means there are no GOP House leaders from either of the two states that strategists of both parties think will determine House control next fall. Six of the GOP’s 22 most vulnerable House seats in the Cook Political Report’s analysis are in California, while five are in New York. McCarthy’s deep understanding of California politics has been replaced by a man who built his career in the religious right and represents a deeply conservative Deep South district in northern Louisiana. That’s not good news for vulnerable California Republicans.
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House GOP strategists acknowledge that McCarthy’s California expertise would have been invaluable, but say that his exit isn’t going to change their plans to heavily spend in the state.
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“You look at the map, and the majority is won or lost in California and New York. We’re not going to throw out the baby with the bathwater,” said one House GOP advisor granted anonymity to give a candid assessment of the party’s strategy.
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Johnson’s hard-right views, especially on social issues, so far haven’t kept swing-district Republicans from wanting to campaign with him. He recently appeared at in-district fundraisers for a trio of vulnerable freshman Republicans from suburban New York.
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But he raised eyebrows with a recent fundraising email. The email, which the NRCC sent out under his name, was steeped in hard-right Christian rhetoric and warned that God might take vengeance on America for its “depraved culture” if the U.S. doesn’t change course fast.
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“I fear America may be beyond redemption,” he wrote, citing the rise in the number of teenagers who identify “as something other than straight.”
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“America needs to recognize that we have much to repent for if we want to avoid the judgment we so clearly deserve, but that starts with returning America to God’s good graces once again,” Johnson declared in the fundraising email.
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Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who has won a series of close races in his Omaha-based swing district, said he’d be happy to have Johnson come in and campaign for him.
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But he said that the chaos of October “hurt us,” and McCarthy’s political acumen is irreplaceable.
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Bacon met McCarthy years before he ran for office, and said that McCarthy identified him as a possible House recruit long before he’d ever thought about running.
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“We lost a talent,” he said. “Nobody can campaign like this guy. And nobody can raise money like this guy. And he recruits really good recruits. I think Mike Johnson can get there. But let’s be honest: McCarthy has worked this for like two decades. This guy has built this machine. So it’s a loss,” he said. “McCarthy is one of a kind.”
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