Key Points:
- 60% of registered California voters approve of the Affordable Care Act
- 54% of voters said they would be less likely to re-elect their member of Congress if they voted for repeal of the ACA
- Voters disapprove of the GOP Tax Scam 47% to 27%
- 52% of voters said they would be less likely to re-elect their member of Congress if they supported the GOP Tax Scam
LA Times: Tax bill and Obamacare repeal are potent issues in California congressional races, poll shows
Christine Mai-Duc | May 23, 2018
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-usc-poll-congress-trump-20180523-story.html
With Democrats angling to win back control of the U.S. House, the new tax law and the failed attempt to repeal Obamacare may prove to be important campaign flashpoints against California Republicans, according to a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll.
Sixty percent of registered voters statewide approved of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. The support was highest among Democrats and people who disapprove of President Trump, and concentrated in urban and coastal areas — which happen to be regions where there are several competitive congressional races.
A majority of voters, 54%, said they would be less likely to reelect their representative if that member of Congress voted to repeal the healthcare law.
Nearly half of voters, 47%, said they opposed the federal tax overhaul signed by Trump in December. It had support of 27% of voters surveyed, and 26% weren’t sure or had no opinion. A slim majority of voters, 52%, said they would be less likely to vote to reelect their member of Congress if he or she supported the bill.
That could be sobering news for Republican incumbents in California: all 14 of them voted to repeal Obamacare, an effort that eventually failed. Twelve of the GOP lawmakers voted for the tax overhaul and only two voted against it. One of them, Rep. Darrell Issa of Vista, announced he was retiring three weeks later.
“At the federal level, these are very promising issues for Democrats in what looks to be a promising year,” said Bob Shrum, a former Democratic strategist who is now the director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at USC. “I think in vulnerable Republican seats where independents can make a difference, Democrats can and will use [the votes] as levers in the election.”
The poll showed that while support for each issue was highly correlated with party affiliation and support for the president, independent voters tended toward sharing the views of Democrats on both policies. About half of independents said they would be less likely to reelect their member of Congress for voting to repeal Obamacare or supporting the tax bill.
The poll also found a majority of higher income earners and people with college degrees were less likely to support their member of Congress for voting against Obamacare or for the tax plan.
Most of the participants who approved of Trump’s performance as president said they were more likely to support their representative for voting for the tax plan.
Trump’s overall approval was dismal: fewer than 3 in 10 voters were happy with how he’s doing, and nearly 7 in 10 disapproved.
The USC/LAT survey was conducted online from April 18 to May 18 and included 691 registered voters. The overall margin of sampling error is 4 percentage points in either direction.
Democrats have been attempting to use the votes against Republicans the entire campaign season.
The House Majority PAC began running digital ads against Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Costa Mesa) shortly after he voted to pass the healthcare repeal bill. The ads focused on a provision in the bill that would have raised the cap on health insurance premiums for older Americans, who are generally some of the most reliable voters in midterm elections.
Even after the measure failed in dramatic fashion, the super PAC continued to beat the drum, running ads in other California districts to attack GOP Reps. Jeff Denham, David Valadao, and Mimi Walters for their “unforgivable” votes.
[…]
The tax law seems like a more poigniant campaign issue since Californians remain deeply skeptical about it. The law is expected to disproportionately impact high-tax, expensive states like California because of caps on the state and local tax and mortgage interest deductions, although much of that won’t be felt until the next tax year — after the midterms.
“Californians specifically are feeling the brunt of much of the Republican agenda on their pocketbooks,” said Drew Godinich, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
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