Across 61 battleground House districts, House Democrats hold a lead on the generic ballot and voters blame Republicans for the shutdown
New, internal polling commissioned by the DCCC revealed that House Democrats are well-positioned to retake the House majority in 2026, as the public grows increasingly sour on Republicans’ disastrous record, the rising cost of living, and their Big, Ugly Bill.
Conducted in 61 districts across the country (26 Frontline, 35 Districts in Play – 45 of which are also Trump-won districts), the research is the clearest indication yet of a public ready to reject House Republicans and elect a Democratic Majority to Congress.
When asked to identify the top priorities that Congress should focus on to address the rising cost of living, battleground voters identified health care and prescription drugs (52%) and groceries (42%) as the top two issues. Additionally, 61% of battleground voters said that Trump’s sweeping tariffs are personally increasing their cost of living. The DCCC’s battleground polling is consistent with recent national public polling such as an AP-NORC poll that found that a majority of U.S. adults are “extremely” or “very” concerned about rising health care costs and a Harris/Axios poll finding that nearly half of adults said groceries are harder to afford today compared to a year ago. A Quinnipiac University poll released this week showed Trump’s approval on the economy reached a new low, likely driven by his sweeping tariff policies and rising cost of living concerns.
The Big, Ugly Bill – Republicans’ ‘centerpiece’ legislation – is underwater by 12 points, with a majority (52%) of battleground voters opposed to the legislation. Notably, this unpopularity comes after a summer of Democratic messaging on the negative impacts of the legislation, with familiarity of the bill among battleground voters at 83%.
Highlighting how unpopular the Republican record is and their refusal to negotiate to address the GOP-manufactured health care crisis, by a margin of 43-38%, battleground voters held Donald Trump and Congressional Republicans more responsible for the government shutdown.
Finally, the research had House Democrats leading the generic Congressional ballot 47% to 43%. This is notable for the fact that in 2024, across the entire 61 district House battlefield, Trump won those districts by an average of 4%. For historical context, a comparable battleground poll the DCCC conducted in November of 2017 had House Democrats up only by 1 point among likely voters – a cycle where House Democrats retook the majority and netted 41 seats.
DCCC Spokesperson Viet Shelton: “The public is turning on House Republicans and tired of their broken promises. Costs are rising, the GOP health care crisis is hurting millions of Americans, and the public hates their disastrous economic agenda. Voters are ready for change and eager to give House Democrats back the majority in 2026.”
The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 2-6 in 61 battleground districts and has a margin of error of +/-3.1%.
