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Inside Elections: “Democrats finally have found reason to be optimistic, and have rallied around their candidate in Ohio’s 9th District”
New Inside Elections polling in OH-09 shows Marcy Kaptur leading Derek Merrin by 10 points, once again confirming what we already know: voters trust Marcy Kaptur to stand up for Northwest Ohio and believe Merrin is too extreme and dangerous for the district.
After a chaotic and ugly GOP primary, Derek Merrin emerged into the race with few funds and even fewer defenses against his deeply extreme and consistent record of self-dealing.
Voters can clearly see the difference between Kaptur’s laundry list of accomplishments and Merrin’s unpopular agenda that includes banning abortion and jailing women, doctors, and children as young as 13.
As Inside Elections wrote, “Kaptur has consolidated virtually all of the Democratic vote in the district; she had support from 98 percent of self-identified Democrats” and even captured 7% of the district’s Republican vote.
DCCC Spokesperson Aidan Johnson:
“Derek Merrin supports a total abortion ban that would jail women and doctors, he is a landlord who opposes safer lead paint standards meant to keep children safe, and his campaign is funded by out-of-touch politicians in Washington who are hellbent on gutting seniors’ hard earned benefits. The more Northwest Ohioans learn about Merrin, the less they like him.”
Inside Elections: Ohio 9 Poll: Individual Brands Still Matter
Jacob Rubashkin | July 31, 2024
- Democratic incumbents in the House and Senate still have the potential to run ahead of the national environment, according to exclusive polling of a northwest Ohio district conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.
- In Ohio’s 9th District, longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur and Sen. Sherrod Brown enjoyed double-digit leads over their lesser-known opponents, while Vice President Kamala Harris begins the general election tied with former President Donald Trump.
- While Ohio is no longer a presidential battleground, the 9th District and Senate race are at or close to the core of the congressional battlefield.
- The 9th District sits in the northwestern corner of the Buckeye State, bordering Indiana, Michigan, and Lake Erie. Its largest city is Toledo, which makes up about a third of the district’s population.
- Kaptur faces state Rep. Derek Merrin this fall. The Republican was heavily recruited by national GOP leaders hoping to avoid a repeat nomination of J.R. Majewski, the 2022 candidate who lost to Kaptur in spectacular fashion after exaggerating his biography.
- Kaptur led Merrin by 10 points, 47-37 percent, in the NPI/Inside Elections poll; 16 percent of voters said they were undecided.
- Kaptur has consolidated virtually all of the Democratic vote in the district; she had support from 98 percent of self-identified Democrats while Merrin had just 81 percent support from Republicans (Kaptur polled at 7 percent among Republicans).
- Merrin was a late entrant into the GOP primary and has lagged in fundraising. He reported $408,000 in the bank on June 30 compared to $2.6 million for Kaptur. But both parties have signaled significant investment in the district for the fall: Democrats’ DCCC and House Majority PAC have reserved $3.1 million in TV advertising while Republicans’ NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund have reserved $2.9 million, according to AdImpact.
- Democratic enthusiasm is supercharged following Biden’s exit and Harris’s ascension to the top of the ticket. After a brutal month — the first presidential debate, the assassination attempt on Trump, and the Republican National Convention — Democrats finally have found reason to be optimistic, and have rallied around their candidates in Ohio’s 9th District.
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