| Non-partisan race raters are moving Arizona’s First Congressional District in Democrats’ direction after David Schweikert decided to drop his increasingly uphill re-election campaign.
Inside Elections is now one of three nationally-recognized, independent race-raters to acknowledge the Phoenix and Scottsdale-area district is a “toss-up.” Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball label AZ-01 as a “toss-up.”
REMINDER: Schweikert won by less than a point during the last midterm elections – signaling this now-open seat is Democrats’ to win.
DCCC Spokesperson Lindsay Reilly:
“David Schweikert is just the latest vulnerable Republican to throw in the towel because of House Republicans’ toxic agenda. Make no mistake: voters know House Republicans’ record of cutting health care to pay for billionaire tax cuts, and they will reject any Republican extremist who tries to replace Schweikert.”
In case you missed it:
Roll Call: Rating change: Arizona’s open 1st District shifts to Toss-up
- One of the most competitive House races in the country has gotten a little more complicated with Republican Rep. David Schweikert announcing that he won’t seek reelection to Arizona’s 1st District.
- After winning by less than a point in 2022 and 4 points in 2024, Schweikert was near the top of Democratic target lists once again from his Scottsdale-area district that has a Republican Baseline advantage of just 1.5 points.
- Democrat Ruben Gallego finished ahead of his GOP opponent by 5 points in the Senate contest. District voters backed Democrat Mark Kelly by nearly 7 points in the 2022 Senate race, and Joe Biden bested Trump by a point in the 2020 presidential contest.
- We’re changing the Inside Elections rating from Tilt Republican to Toss-up, which is a category better for Democrats.
- Schweikert is the 29th House member to announce they will not seek reelection to the chamber next year.
- Arizona’s 1st District is the 13th House race rated a Toss-up by Inside Elections this cycle. Republicans are defending nine seats in the Toss-up category compared with four Democrat-held seats.
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