NEW: Republicans’ Future Is in the Hands of the Latino Voters They Betrayed

“Our Hispanic voters didn’t show up,” NRCC Chair Richard Hudson acknowledged in an interview during the House GOP retreat last week.

Speaker Mike Johnson came up with the understatement of the month: “We got a little hiccup with some of the Hispanic, Latino voters because some of the immigration enforcement was viewed to be overzealous.”

In contrast, Democrats are on a winning streak since the 2025 special elections in which the Latino vote played a key role. Another proof point was the Texas primary this month which showed Democrats outperformed Republicans who gerrymandered the state in their favor. A key Texas takeaway:

“The Latino vote is the biggest swing vote in Texas, and it is trending towards the Democrats, because there’s a perception that the Republicans didn’t take those concerns seriously enough.”

DCCC Spokesperson Bridget Gonzalez:
“Latino voters see through every Republican lie and are done with them. House Republicans should start getting ready to be out of a job in November.”

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Punchbowl News: The Latino vote could crush Republicans

• House Republicans are very aware that the same Latino voters who propelled the GOP to the majority in 2024 could desert them this fall.
• Swing districts with large Latino populations in Texas, Florida, Arizona and California will determine control of the House. Republicans made serious inroads last cycle with these voters, especially among Hispanic men. GOP candidates were buoyed by cost-of-living concerns and the appeal of President Donald Trump on the ballot.
• Recent elections have given Democrats hope, too. In November, Democratic candidates won the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, two states with significant Latino populations.
• Speaker Mike Johnson was even more blunt: “We got a little hiccup with some of the Hispanic, Latino voters because some of the immigration enforcement was viewed to be overzealous.”
• This comes as post-election polls show a nosedive in support for Trump among Hispanic voters. A CNN poll last month found that Trump had lost 19 points on his approval rating with Hispanic voters over a year. A new Economist/YouGov poll found Hispanic voters would back a Democratic candidate over a GOP one by a 43% to 27% margin.

Roll Call: Texas Democrats bullish about winning back Latino voters

• Texas Republicans embarked on a mid-decade redraw of the state’s congressional map last year in a quest to win five additional seats and build on the GOP’s recent gains with Latino voters.
• Now that strategy is running headlong into rising disenchantment with President Donald Trump and a Latino electorate disgruntled with the state of the economy and increasingly distressed by the harshness of Trump’s immigration crackdown.
• “Economic anxiety is still the dominant political mood, but the politics have shifted,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. “The Latino vote is the biggest swing vote in Texas, and it is trending towards the Democrats, because there’s a perception that the Republicans didn’t take those concerns seriously enough.”
• That shift was reflected in the results of the March 3 Texas primaries, which saw a spike in Democratic turnout in counties with large Latino populations, including several battleground districts.
• Democrats are also projecting increasing confidence that two of their vulnerable South Texas incumbents — Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th District and Henry Cuellar in the 28th — will prevail. Gonzalez faces Army veteran Eric Flores in a race rated a Toss-up by Inside Elections. And Cuellar is looking to beat back a challenge from Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat.
• “There’s a very real possibility that the Republicans won’t pick up anywhere close to five seats this cycle,” Rottinghaus said. “There’s a good chance they could pick up one, maybe two. If they picked up more than that, it would be very surprising.”

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