News · Press Release

🚨 Non-Partisan Race Rater on Kentucky’s 6th District: “New Poll Fuels Democratic Optimism”

A new poll first reported on by non-partisan race rater Inside Elections proves that Kentucky’s 6th district is squarely in play.

Read key points from Inside Elections below, and see the poll HERE:

  • […] a new poll obtained by Inside Elections suggests the race is becoming increasingly competitive.
  • GOP former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado led Democratic military veteran Zach Dembo 42-39 percent in a June 24-28 survey conducted by GQR for the Dembo campaign, with 19 percent either undecided or voting for a third-party candidate. Alvarado had higher name ID, but also higher negatives. He had a 21 percent positive/20 percent negative rating compared to 22 percent positive/12 percent negative for Dembo.
  • According to the memo, President Donald Trump is underwater by 7 points in a district where he finished ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by 15 points in 2024 and by 11 points over Joe Biden in 2020. In contrast, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear had a 58 percent favorable/36 percent unfavorable rating in the poll.
  • It’s the second Democratic poll in recent months to show the race is competitive. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted April 24-25 for New Politics, and first reported by Politico, showed Dembo and Alvarado tied at 37 percent.
  • Alvarado, a physician and state Senator from 2015 to 2023, isn’t a stranger to this district – or experiencing defeat in it. He ran as GOP Gov. Matt Bevin’s running mate for lieutenant governor in 2019; the pair finished behind Beshear by 11 points in the 6th District en route to a statewide loss. Alvarado later moved to Tennessee to serve as the state health department’s commissioner under GOP Gov. Bill Lee and returned to Kentucky in 2025 to run for this seat.
  • Dembo, a former federal prosecutor and Navy JAG officer, is running his first campaign for office. He has the backing of Beshear, for whom Dembo served as a policy advisor and legislative director after resigning from his post at the US Department of Justice Civil Rights Division. In this race, he’s called out the president for weaponizing the DOJ and called the system “broken” in a campaign ad. The University of Michigan Law graduate is making gains in the fundraising race with $625,000 raised in the second quarter, with nearly $500,000 cash on hand, according to the campaign.
  • Under normal conditions, the district votes Republican, although it has supported Democrats recently. Beshear carried it by nearly 20 points in his 2023 re-election campaign, and he’s obviously supporting Dembo in this race.

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