In January 2019, the DCCC designed and implemented a strategy to protect and expand the most diverse House Caucus in American history. We set out with the goals of fortifying the largest Democratic Frontline program in a decade with a popular agenda, significant resources, and strong infrastructure, while also recruiting highly qualified candidates deep into an aggressive offensive battlefield. One year out from Election Day, it’s clear that the DCCC’s two-pronged strategy has succeeded, evidenced through well-financed Democratic incumbents who have built strong local brands and positioned themselves to be re-elected, Republican recruitment failures, a group of strong Democratic challengers and a subsequent wave of Republican retirements.
The House Democrats’ battlefield now encompasses 43 Frontline Democratic districts and has expanded to include 39 Republican-held districts. Already, a huge portion of these Frontliners have taken their races off the board in the off-year through notable local accomplishments, historic fundraising and top-tier campaign infrastructure that has scared off would-be challengers. And thanks to successful recruitment coupled with notable fundraising in offensive seats, the DCCC is stretching Republican resources thin and forcing Republicans to answer for their unpopular agenda that serves special interests, while leaving working Americans behind from Texas to North Carolina and New York to Alaska.
To demonstrate the strong position Democrats hold, one year out from Election Day, this memo includes new polling data from across Democrats’ offensive and defensive battlefields, as well as longitudinal data that demonstrates voters trust Democrats and continue to be engaged in the election at an historically high level.
Fortifying Frontline Districts
Fundraising success
DCCC Frontliners raised at an incredible pace, demonstrating their continued grassroots support, and ensuring they will have the resources they need to run competitive races. Through the 3rd quarter of 2019, 33 Frontline members had more than $1 million cash on hand, and collectively, Frontline members had almost $59 million on hand.
Democrats are Fighting for the priorities of the American people
Since Day One, the new Democratic Majority has fought to keep their promises to the American people. They have passed bills to crack down on corruption in Washington, ensure the security of our elections, bring down the cost of prescription drugs, protect Americans with pre-existing conditions, close the gender pay gap, raise wages for working families, take action to save lives from gun violence, stop offshore drilling, protect the climate, protect DREAMers… and they’re just getting started. The DCCC will continue to communicate these successes early and often to remind voters that the Democratic majority has their back.
The impact of this work on Frontline Democrats’ political standing can be seen over a year out from the election. Polling in Frontline Democratic districts, even following the development of the Ukraine phone call, shows no change. Democrats across the Frontline program, including in districts President Trump carried, are in a commanding position to win re-election next November.
Republican Retirement Crisis (it’s not just the #TEXODUS)
In 2018, record Republican retirements were an early sign that Democrats were going to take back the House. 2020 is no different. Retirements of senior Republicans like Rep. Susan Brooks, the NRCC’s Recruitment Chair, and Rep. Walden, the Ranking Member on the Energy and Commerce Committee, “raise questions about GOP optimism in 2020.”
Furthermore, the retirements of Republicans in newly competitive seats, like Reps. Marchant and Olson of #TEXODUS fame, as well as Will Hurd, demonstrate that untested Republicans are not confident in their ability to defend their toxic agenda to a changing and undeniably engaged electorate.
These retirements have created six open seats in competitive districts, which only adds to the NRCC’s heavy recruitment burden. While Republican leaders try to convince their vulnerable members and even their own party leadership to stick around, the DCCC has continued to grow the battlefield further into once ruby-red districts as we protect and expand our Democratic Majority.
Record DCCC Fundraising & Programs to Support the Battlefield
DCCC Dominates NRCC Fundraising
It’s not just Democratic Frontline Members and challenger candidates whose fundraising is building on 2018’s eye-popping numbers. The DCCC has outraised the NRCC in three straight quarters and nine straight months of 2019: $89.06 million in comparison to the NRCC’s $60.35 million, bringing the DCCC’s total fundraising advantage over the NRCC for this election cycle to $28.7 million. The DCCC begins the final quarter of 2019 with $36.2 million on hand, $12.4 million more than the NRCC at this point in the Election Cycle.
And as the DCCC competes with an historically large Democratic Presidential field, through the third quarter, a full 47% of the DCCC’s total raised is from grassroots donations, online, over the phone, and through the mail. In online donations specifically, the average contribution is just $16.
This has allowed the DCCC to make massive, early investments in the battlefield, across offensive and defensive districts, to ensure that we are earning the trust of key voters ahead of 2020, and holding Republicans accountable at every turn.
Cycle of Engagement
In June, the DCCC announced the Cycle of Engagement – the largest early investment House Democrats have ever made to better connect with the base of the Democratic Party. Building on 2018’s successful Year of Engagement, the DCCC’s Cycle of Engagement program is the DCCC’s multi-year strategy to make sure we earn the support of two of our key constituencies — people of color and younger Americans — early and turn them out to vote for Democrats for Congress.
The Cycle of Engagement has already made significant investments in polling and focus groups, including among rural African American voters in North Carolina and eligible, but non-voting Latinos in Texas. This crucial work will inform paid media, including digital, radio, mail, texting and mobile outreach programs, as well as targeted field investment and voter registration drives to reach and engage communities of color and younger Americans.
March Forward 2020
In April, the DCCC launched March Forward – an aggressive, multi-million dollar effort to defend and expand the new Democratic Majority. Expanding on the demonstrated success of March into ’18, the March Forward Field Managers were trained on communications, digital, research and field tactics, and have worked to engage our new Democratic coalition across the country. Since then, the DCCC has put 58 Field Managers on the ground in 27 states.
Those managers have already:
- Held more than 4,300 one on one meetings with volunteers and activists;
- Organized more than 720 events;
- Trained more than 1,570 volunteers, and;
- Registered more than 5,050 voters.
DCCC:Texas
In 2018, Democrats defeated two longtime incumbents in Texas, including the former Chairman of the NRCC, Pete Sessions. Following these critical wins, the DCCC announced in January 2019 that it would go on offense in six districts in Texas that were within 5-points in 2018, expanding the battlefield even further into the state. In April, to anchor that work, the DCCC announced a new DCCC:Texas Headquarters led by native Texans to capitalize on the proven grassroots energy in the state. Learning from the DCCC’s successful West Coast strategy in 2018, the DCCC put six senior staffers in Austin and grassroots organizers in key communities across the state. That has allowed our team to be close to campaigns, voters, and activists, and give them the tools they need to put early pressure on Republicans who hadn’t run competitive races in years.
Feeling the pressure, six Texas Republicans announced they would not seek reelection in 2020, including three of the DCCC’s six Texas targets. Most importantly, Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd district, one of only three remaining “Clinton districts” held by a Republican, announced he would leave office voluntarily at the end of his term. This “TEXODUS” has created an even more fertile environment for Democratic gains in the state and it would not exist without the DCCC’s early and aggressive investment on the ground.
Polling Shows Frontline Strength, Offensive Opportunities
With a year until the election, it’s clear that Frontline Democrats’ focus on accessibility, following through on the priorities of the communities that elected them, and changing Washington has paid off. In addition, Democrats strong position is magnified by President Trump’s weakness, even in districts he carried in 2016. President Trump will be on the ballot in 2020, and his erosion in support puts Democrats in a very strong position for reelection.
Expanding the Battlefield
The DCCC began the 2020 election cycle by laying out 33 districts in its offensive battlefield, which expanded to 39 districts in August. The DCCC has recruited top tier candidates across the battlefield, and in the DCCC’s 39 targeted districts, 49 Democrats have already raised more than $100,000. In total, those 49 Democratic challenges have raised over $21 million. On top of that, in the third quarter of 2019, at least 8 Democratic challengers in competitive districts outraised GOP incumbents.
As Democratic challengers put Republicans on their heels, historically high levels of voter enthusiasm well in advance of Election Day 2020, as well as a generic Congressional ballot that is even stronger than it stood at this point in 2017, show that Democrats have not only fortified gains made in 2018, we are positioned to expand those gains further.
Additionally, while Democrats are pushing deeper into Trump won territory, the President’s standing has eroded considerably in these districts.
In summary, Democratic Frontline Members have done the work to win their districts in the off-year, and Democrats are positioned to push further into currently Republican held territory.
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