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Ahead of the 2022 midterm election, analysts, pundits, and Republicans alike predicted a “red tsunami.” That tsunami failed to materialize.
Instead, a disorganized, drama-filled, razor-thin GOP majority washed ashore. Their governing “agenda” has included ripping away women’s reproductive freedom, banning books, launching sham investigations rooted in conspiracy theories, shutting down the government and protecting wealthy tax cheats.
Things have gotten so bad, Republicans themselves have admitted that their Conference is “hopelessly divided,” going so far as to admit “we don’t deserve the majority,” and adding the GOP is “much more made for being in the minority.”
Come November 2024, voters will ensure that the MAGA House Speaker next January will hand Hakeem Jeffries the gavel and House Democrats a governing majority after non-stop GOP-manufactured chaos, crisis, and confusion. Far-right Republican recruits and the so-called “moderate” incumbents have embraced party extremism on issues from reproductive freedom to election integrity, leaving their constituents behind.
But it’s not just Republican extremism: fairer maps in multiple states, strong Democratic recruitment, and the strength of our battle-tested Frontliners have set the DCCC on a path to take back the majority in 2024.
POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT FAVORS DEMOCRATS
Abortion Will Continue to Be a Motivating Issue for Voters
We will ensure voters know vulnerable House Republicans have voted to punish doctors for providing reproductive care, attempted to impose federal restrictions on the safe abortion medication mifepristone, and elevated a House Speaker who champions a nationwide abortion ban with no-exceptions for rape, incest, or the health of the woman.
Abortion will be on the ballot in November 2024 – and several key states including Arizona, Florida, and New York are looking to have statewide initiatives to protect reproductive health care.
Since the Dobbs decision, Democrats have seen continued success at the ballot box. Abortion access hung in the balance of the April state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin. Democratic-aligned Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge Janet Protasiewicz’s messaging highlighted her opponent’s anti-abortion extremism and what it would mean for Wisconsin. Protasiewicz was triumphant and notably overperformed House 2022 results by 7 points in both WI-01 and WI-03.
In August, voters in Ohio dealt another blow to MAGA Republicans’ anti-abortion agenda with a resounding rejection of Issue 1, which sought to change the rules in order to make it harder for voters to protect reproductive freedom.
Presidential Year Turnout
Presidential election years continue to be favorable to Democrats in the House battleground – especially when voters are reminded of the chaos of the Trump years. The 2020 and 2016 electorates on the current DCCC battleground were more Independent, younger, and diverse than midterm electorates, according to DCCC analysis of the DNC’s voter file.
  
On the DCCC map, 18 Republicans represent a congressional district that President Biden won in 2020. Donald Trump and his MAGA priorities continue to put these Republicans between a rock and a hard place, and only highlights their extreme record. Just last week, the so-called moderates folded, yet again, and backed Trump’s hand-picked House Speaker, “MAGA Mike” Johnson. Swing Latino Voters Will Stick with Democrats – Just Like 2022
Democrats won “highly conflicted” swing Latino voters 68% to 24% during the 2022 midterms, according to the Equis 2022 postmortem. 68% of that same group believed that Democrats were “better for Hispanics,” while only 16% believed Republicans were better for Hispanics.
Democrats focused on engaging early and often with these communities. Latinos in battleground states report a more concerted effort by Democrats to reach out to them in 2022 than in previous years (+31pp for liberals, +28pp for moderates, +18pp for conservatives) – a higher rate across the board than Republicans’ outreach efforts compared to previous years (-7pp for liberals, +0pp for moderates, +16pp for conservatives).
Redistricting Decisions Favor Democrats
Following a Supreme Court ruling earlier this year that reaffirmed Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, several Southern states are forced to redraw their congressional maps to include additional minority-opportunity districts to reflect the diversity of our country and ensure fair representation. As a result of this victory, Democrats can expect to pick up anywhere from one to three seats across the South – from Alabama to Georgia to Louisiana.
BATTLE-TESTED FRONTLINERS ARE DEFINED LEADERS IN THEIR COMMUNITIES
In 2022, the DCCC helped reelect 35 of 39 Frontline Democrats to Congress. In 2024, it’s our expectation that our Frontline Democrats will return to Congress based on their record of delivering real results like capping the cost of insulin to $35 per month, investing in roads and high-speed internet, and bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.A., – the exact opposite of NRCC “Patriot” incumbents.
House Democrats are proudly running on a record of accomplishment and it shows with a net positive favorability (42%), according to a survey from Navigator Research.
Most of these Frontline Democrats – 62% – have been on Frontline before – and have triumphed despite more than $183,700,000 negative Republican spending against them.
SO-CALLED MODERATE REPUBLICANS NOW HAVE AN EXTREME VOTING RECORD
Freshmen Republican incumbents had the benefit last cycle of running without a real voting record – that isn’t the case in 2024. These so-called moderates will now have to answer for voting with extremists like Marjorie Taylor Greene and elevating “MAGA Mike” Johnson to the Speakership.
From cutting veterans’ health care to endangering Social Security and Medicare to restricting reproductive freedoms, these vulnerable House Republicans have fallen in lock step with GOP Leadership and their far-right colleagues – proving they cannot be trusted to lead.
DEMOCRATIC CHALLENGERS ARE STRONG
Veterans. Educators. Community leaders. Small business owners. The DCCC has recruited top-tier candidates to take on highly vulnerable Republicans. These recruits – including Will Rollins in CA-41, Tony Vargas in NE-02, Christina Bohannan in IA-01, and Josh Riley in NY-19 – are succeeding in fundraising and building top-tier campaigns.
These star recruits couldn’t stand in clearer contrast to returning NRCC recruits whose extreme records lost them their races in 2022. In the two open battlefield seats, Republican recruits Tom Barrett (MI-07) and Scott Baugh (CA-47) were cast aside by voters in 2022 for being too extreme and out of touch with their districts. The same can be said for NRCC recruits Joe Kent (WA-03) and J.R. Majewski (OH-09) who lost in districts Donald Trump won in 2020 because of their embrace of fringe issues from election conspiracies to banning abortion with no exceptions.
Finally, Democratic challengers are already outpacing their Republican incumbents. In four of the most competitive districts in the country, these Democrats have raised a net $3,048,386 more than their opponents in the third quarter.
DCCC CONTINUES TO OUTPACE THE NRCC
While Democrats stand united to take back the House, the Republican fundraising operation has faltered. The DCCC has outpaced the NRCC on the fundraising stage every quarter this off-year – with $44 million cash on hand compared to the NRCC’s $36 million. For example, the NRCC’s August fundraising marked their second worst month since at least 2019, with their worst month in that period being the December after the midterms.
Small-dollar, grassroots donors continue to highlight the enthusiasm gap for House Democrats. In the third quarter, for example, the DCCC outpaced the NRCC by 91% in small-dollar donations.
Bottom line: We need just five more seats to take back the House majority in 2024. Vulnerable Republicans are building the case against themselves. Meanwhile, battle-tested Frontline Democrats, top-tier DCCC recruits, and court rulings ensuring fair maps are the elements that will ensure the Blue Wave crests in November 2024.
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